Firebreak Stakes at Meydan Racecourse Betting Analysis

There is a massive pile of cash up for grabs in this listed mile at Meydan today with a full £175,000 to be divi’d up amongst the top finishers. A veteran group of runners are set to contest this over the Tapeta surface and we’re seeing several seasonal debuts from some genuine superstars.

One of the most notable is the current betting favourite as Mike De Kock’s Musir (Redoute’s Choice) comes back to defend his undefeated Meydan record. He went three for three last year and he was exceptionally well-campaigned after shipping in from South Africa off a Grade 1 score at Greyville. He captured the UAE 2000 Guineas and the UAE Derby last year, notably scoring over Mendip (Harlan’s Holiday) to condemn him to his first (and only) career defeat. If given the room to operate, Musir will be a real force to be reckoned with here and he still returns a very enticing payout with a Betfair projected SP of 3.3.

Last year’s Dubai Duty Free runner-up Bankable (Medicean) didn’t get things off to the best of starts this year with a disappointing fourth place finish in a conditions race at Meydan. You can forgive him as he was laid off since March of last year and likely needed the race under his belt. Punters weren’t particularly enamoured with him on the day – indicated by his 8/1 price at the off. This is his third year at the carnival and he has always won one race out of two or three every year so it’s just a question of whether he’s bitten off more than he can chew at this point. Look for him to go off around 4.5.

Imbongi (Russian Revival) definitely deserves respect and he’s actually got an effort at Meydan under his belt already – a credible second place finish to the impressive Mendip (Harlan’s Holiday) in round 1 of the Al Maktoum Challenge. He is lining up for Mike De Kock as well and one wonders how many SAF 1-2’s are going to be played in the forecast market. You’ll find him around 6.5.

Godolphin are set to saddle Dettori aboard Skysurfers (E Dubai) and Frankie’s presence is always a clear indication that he’s the blue teams’ stand-out choice. He’ll be looking to recover from the stinker he ran at Redcar back in October – finishing 10/10 after being eased, despite going off as a joint-favourite. He ran 153 in three attempts at Meydan last year and managed a show effort in the Group 2 Godolphin Mile. Should he score on his first race of the meet this time, he’ll be rewarding at a tasty 12.5. If he gets to the front, or near the front, he’ll be in with a shout. 

It will take an awful lot to beat out Musir if he’s in-form and keying him up aboard some of the top contenders listed here could pay a very tasty dividend, though we don’t usually make a habit of backing favourites, he is trading at a very credible price.