Robert B Lewis Stakes Analysis and Betting Preview

The feature on Saturday’s card at Santa Anita is the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes – where one or two contenders will take a giant step forward along the Kentucky Derby Trail. Tapizar (Tapit) is obviously the big story coming into this one on the back of his impressive Grade 3 Sham Stakes victory.

Most observers expect the flashy Asmussen-trained colt to flourish with the Santa Anita dirt track speed bias in full effect. This 1m1f distance will separate the men from the boys and it’s interesting that Comma To The Top (Bwana Charlie) has opted for the path of least resistance, effectively ducking Tapizar, heading north to Golden Gate Fields and the El Camino Real Derby. Already boasting enough graded earnings for a Derby slot, Comma To The Top is expected to roll over the competition in NorCal.

Wegner (Dynaformer) is fresh off a 55K maiden score over the Santa Anita dirt after three negligible attempts over synthetic at lower purses. He took advantage of the speed bias on the day and he’ll definitely try to get right to the front – having fewer options with the rail stall. He gets an extra furlong here and one wonders whether he can juggle the stretch out with the big step up in quality.

Anthony’s Cross (Indian Charlie) looks like a tactical speed type that is still trying to find the right type of footing. He was bested by Tapizar in the Sham last time out and finished a well-beaten third nine lengths off the pace. He flashed an 81 Beyer on the day, a career-high, but he just looks a little bit outmatched here. Could factor for a slice but will need others to fade out.

Tapizar draws his favoured fourth stall and the Asmussen-trained colt is going to be looking to make a very big statement in this race about his Derby intentions. He continues his partnership with Garret Gomez and the pair will likely sit just a little bit off the leader for the opening 1/4 or so as Wegner will be looking to seize the opportunity coming in off the rail. If the pace isn’t electric, look for Gomez to move up front and start to dictate things. He showed the ability to track and pounce in his maiden score at Churchill and one assumes that the goal today is to flash a triple digit Beyer. We haven’t seen the bottom of Tapizar yet, not by a long shot, and the race shapes up as his to win.

Ten Devils (Rock Hard Ten) lines up just to Tapizar’s right and he probably won’t try to contest the early speed, having learned his lesson last time out when losing by half a length in an optional claimer over the turf course. He actually makes the switch to dirt for the first time and it’s all really how he takes to it. The turf to synthetic reference was a little more manageable for some and turf to dirt with a pronounced speed bias really throws this horse in at the deep end. He’s never finished outside the top two on the grass though he will likely take some cautious money from those looking for a big price.

Riveting Reason (Fusaichi Pegasus) has been in the mix during a number fo Grade 1 contest but his best efforts were a pair of 3^rd place finishes at Del Mar and the Oak Tree meet at Hollywood. His only victory came in a 38k MSW at Hollywood though he did flash quality on his dirt debut in a 50K allowance at the Great Race Place. He was a non-factor in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but, who knows, the Santa Anita dirt might just be his thing. Gomez had him last time but, predictably, opts for Tapizar instead. Riveting Reason switches back to Victor Espinoza – who was up for the maiden break last November.

Quail Hill (Candy Ride) is another pace type and he switches off the turf after a maiden score here two weeks back. This is a massive step up in quality here but the barn has had success moving runners from turf to dirt and, being a Candy Ride, he will likely be quite versatile. Expect him to be forced to the lead with the wider stall. He will likely go off at the highest price and doesn’t look a factor from a Beyer standpoint.

Thirtyfirststreet (Good Journey) looks the textbook deep-closer and he’s been laid off for a solid six weeks or so since capturing a non-graded stakes for Cal-breds. He gets an extra two furlongs to deal with but workouts indicate that he should be able to perform. The wide stall plays to his running style a bit and there will probably be a very hot early pace to aim at on the stretch. Traffic trouble could undo him but he does have the dirt victory under his belt. Probably outmatched here, but look for him in the deeper part of your exotic plays.

Selection: Tapizar over Ten Devils and Riveting Reason with Thirtyfirststreet possibly getting up for third.