12/1 Els to tame Carnoustie

For the past eight years, Carnoustie has conjured images of brutality and harshness. When The Open was last there in 1999, the set-up was deemed "unfair" by Tiger Woods and many of the world's other top golfers. But what it lacked in fairness, it certainly made up for in drama, with Jean Van de Velde letting a three shot lead slip on the final hole after a paddle in the Barry Burn. The outcome was a three way playoff at six over par in which the Frenchman and Justin Leonard were beaten by Paul Lawrie who is still the last European winner of a Major. This time around the east Scotland links is set up in the golfer's favour and a score of four to eight under par is being mooted as the winning total. The course has been lengthened since '99, and as the Royal and Ancient Golf Club's chief Peter Dawson says, "Carnoustie deserves its reputation as the toughest course we use." Much will depend on the weather and a mixed forecast will add to an already wet course - meaning shorter driving distance and thicker rough. Tiger Woods pitches up in search of his third successive Claret Jug and is understandably a huge favourite with the bookies, t a best price 7/2. Last year he came to Hoylake looking for his first major since his father died, and this time he comes searching for his first since becoming a father himself. As weaknesses go, Woods does not have many, but a 56.35% of fairways hit this season definitely ranks as one. At Carnoustie, especially in the wind and rain, this will be a real problem where the length determines that his driver will have to be regularly unsheathed, and errant shots will end up in some deep rough. This is a problem shared by Phil Mickelson and it was well exhibited in the final round of the Scottish Open last week. Mickelson missed over half of the fairways on the last day and threw away a winning position. We advise skipping Mickelson from a best price of 18/1. The man they sandwich in the betting is having no such problems at present, and that is Ernie Els. The South African was using a new driver at Loch Lomond, and with an average length of 293 yards off the tee and an accuracy percentage of 75% it served him well. His swing looked assured, and a 40 foot putt on the final green capped off a wonderful 65 that left him just one shot off the winning total.In 1999 at The Open he finished 34th with solid rounds of 74, 76, 76 and 72. Since then, the 37 year old has come 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 18th, 2nd, 34th and 3rd in the seven Opens staged. This is a fantastic run of results that clearly shows a liking for the unique intricacies of links golf. With five of the last seven having seen finishes inside the top five, an each way bet is tempting. Lawrie was an unexpected winner here and there have been several in the majors in recent years, and so it makes sense to look towards the bottom of the betting lists to find a contender. One man that catches the eye is Graeme McDowell. Having been brought up on the classic Royal Portrush golf course on the rugged Northern Irish coast, he is very well versed in the tribulations of links golf. In three entries to The Open, twice the 27 year old has finished eleventh, a fine return and surely an indication of his seaside knowledge. McDowell has high credentials, and a promising career beckoned when being the top US Collegiate golfer in 2001. A scoring average of 69.6 that year was a better mark than previous top dogs Tiger Woods and Luke Donald. His good recent form, a great deal of links experience and a declaration on his website that he enjoys Carnoustie, makes the 100/1 looks like a bet worth taking. Finally, we are interested in the top English player market. There is a plethora of talent from England, and pundits and fans are waiting for one of them to make the leap by claiming a major title - 25 Englishmen will be taking part, and 6 of them are currently in the world's top 50. David Howell (18/1) has been struggling with injury this year, and Lee Westwood (17/2) has shown glimmers of top form but also seems to be facing some swing issues. This leaves four men, Justin Rose (10/3), Luke Donald (7/2), Paul Casey (5/1) and Ian Poulter (7/1). Ian Poutler is the stand out here. The 31 year old relishes the extra attention of the Majors, and his launching of a new clothing range this week is no accident. He wants the cameras to be fixed in his direction and seven tour wins prove that he has no problem living up to the hype. A good major record is also encouraging, with just two missed cuts in 16 starts since 2002. One of these came at Hoylake last year, but he was 11th the year before and 25th the year before that. He also came 13th at the Masters this year and 12th at the US Open in 2006, showing that he has the all round game to compete in each of the big four. A 65 at Carnoustie in the 2004 Dunhill Links Championship is further reason to be optimistic. A good solid result of 8th place at the Scottish Open last week was impressive and we feel Poulter could well top this market from an attractive looking quote. This market pays out at 1/4 odds for a top 3 finish. Verdict: Ernie Els @ 12/1; Graeme McDowell @ 100/1 (various); Ian Poulter top English player @ 7/1 (Sporting Odds) SportingOdds are offering all new customers £100 worth of free bets. Click here and open an account today. SportingOdds is interactive, instant, bringing you the fun and excitement of a revolutionary way of betting. SportingOdds aim to provide you with an unrivalled in running service, coupled with a comprehensive range of betting opportunities. 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