2005 Queen Mother Champion Chase
2m | Old Course | 3.15 Wednesday 16 March The 2005 Queen Mother Champion Chase will throw together three superb chasers in Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer and Well Chief and one of them looks certain to win. Remember that this is most definitely not a race for the turn-up. Drumgora's 25-1 success in 1981 was the last time the bookies enjoyed a real 'skinner' - Deep Sensation's 11-1 victory in 1993 the only occasion since to yield a winner with a double figure price. Horses attempting their second win in the race can fall back on the lessons of history with some comfort, Drinnys Double, Skymas, Hilly Way, Royal Relief, Badsworth Boy, Pearlyman, Barnbrook Again, and Viking Flagship all ended their careers with more than one win in the race. Bring it on. LadbrokesVCBet (free fifty pound bet)Stan James (free twenty five pound bet)Blue Square (free twenty five pound bet) ARMATURK8yo trained by Paul NichollsForm: 4373Boasting only one win from ten career starts at Cheltenham, it appears incredulous that Armaturk could make it two here. He had a summer wind operation last year and whilst that allowed him a fortunate victory over Well Chief at Cheltenham, his last three runs have seen him well beaten in the Castleford behind Mister Mcgoldrick, the Victor Chandler and the Game Spirit Chases. He has an impossible-looking 23 lengths to find with Azertyuiop on Newbury running and would be better off pursuing more realistic alternative entries in the Grand Annual and, of more interest, the Mildmay Of Flete.. AZERTYUIOP8yo trained by Paul NichollsForm: 1231Think of the Arkle chase in 2003 and last year's Queen Mother Champion Chase, and the image is the same. Paul Nicholls' magnificent eight-year-old jumped beautifully, galloped relentlessly and crucially, slipped into another gear when faced by his final rival, the hill. He won those two races by an aggregate of 20 lengths with performances that were as near to perfection as you will see at the Festival. How many times do we see horses return to Cheltenham, year in year out and post their season best? At eight, Azertyuiop seems at his peak.When we last saw him he beat Well Chief in the Game Spirit at Newbury. Giving the youngster 4lbs, Azertyuiop travelled and jumped with real fluency, the only cause for concern being an apparently laboured run to the line inside the final 150 yards. Two points here. Nicholls, with typical openness, had stated that Azertyuiop would need the run slightly but reference to the head-on tape helps clear the picture. After the last at Newbury the runners must steer to their right to negotiate the "elbow" that takes them around the water jump. Here, Ruby Walsh was driving away, head down and for a long time, was taking Azertyuiop straight to the rails (remember the mess Fundamentalist and Carl Llewellyn got into here last November). Late on Ruby corrected his passage but momentum was lost and it looked relatively unimpressive. All completely forgivable in my book.Make no mistake this is an outstanding horse with no apparent weakness. At eight he is in his prime. There is almost perfect symmetry to his campaign this year compared to last year; defeat in the Tingle Creek when not anywhere near 100% and the Game Spirit then used as a warm up. His run in the King George was excellent; a four-length defeat at the hands of Kicking King was still pretty good for a non stayer. All looks set fair for another display of excellence on 16 March.LadbrokesVCBet (free fifty pound bet)Stan James (free twenty five pound bet)Blue Square (free twenty five pound bet) CENKOS11yo trained by Paul NichollsForm: 4695Approaching the veteran stage of his career, and a spring horse all his life, it's very hard to see how Cenkos can win this. His five runs this winter suggest decline, he was beaten 13 lengths and 10 lengths in the last two runnings of this race. We may have to wait until Aintree and beyond to see if he can still cut the mustard at the age of 11. CENTRAL HOUSE8yo trained by Dessie HughesForm: 1121A smashing horse, the winner of three races this winter, and his racing style is that of an exuberant front-runner who stays particularly well. That said, there have to be two significant worries. First is the class factor. He must race here on level weights when the reality is that Central House is around two stone inferior to the big guns on official figures. Secondly, he relishes testing conditions, so unless the heavens open it's hard to visualise him matching strides with the best of them. That said, the blinkers that were applied at the beginning of the winter have had a positive impact and we should recall that he was going well when ejecting his jockey four out in last year's Arkle. He holds alternative engagements in the Daily Telegraph Chase and the Grand Annual, but if Dessie Hughes lets him run in this you can guarantee his improvement will continue. KADARANN8yo trained by Paul NichollsForm: 3235It's impossible to dislike a horse who has either won or been placed in 22 of his 29 races but like so many of these horses, it stretches credibility to think he could win the big one. Take his run in the Victor Chandler, for example. He was receiving 20lbs from Well Chief and was beaten eight and a half lengths. How can he turn that around? He followed that by running a poor race at Newbury when beaten nearly two fences by Azertyuiop. Throw in the suspicion that he is not the heartiest of battlers and he'll be doing well to get placed. MISTER MCGOLDRICK8yo trained by Sue SmithForm: 3124A soft ground lover who was rightly showered with praise after he won this winter's Castleford Chase at Wetherby, where Well Chief fell in the home straight. He's been to Cheltenham already this season for a handicap when handsomely beaten by Armaturk and Well Chief (he eventually departed at the last). The suspicion is he had his day at Wetherby and that though there are more prizes for him, this one is out of his reach unless the ground is very, very heavy. MOSCOW FLYER11yo trained by Jessica HarrigtonForm: 1111A quite exceptional horse, the winner of all of his completed chases (17 if you needed reminding) and has only been beaten through falling.In any other era he would surely have had the opportunity to dominate the two-mile scene as Badsworth Boy did in the 1980s. His Festival record is good without being blemish free. Winner of the 2002 Arkle, he then claimed this Championship in 2003 before his heart stopping difference of opinion with Barry Geraghty four out in last year's race. Because of this and an uncanny sequence over fences that once read F111F111U111U111U much nonsense has been talked of Moscow Flyer's jumping. However, the truth is that he is a fantastic jumper, but every now and then, he'll lose concentration and pay the penalty.Like Azertyuiop he comes to Cheltenham on the back of a win in his prep race - the Tied Cottage at Punchestown - where he had to make his own running and jumped superbly to boot. However, his finish was pretty tame that day and ultimately he looked unimpressive, holding a horse officially 50lbs inferior to him at bay in unconvincing style. Given that he was sick over Christmas and this was his first run since Sandown, perhaps he needed it badly, but you can't get away from the fact that history is against him in terms of age. It's been nearly thirty years since an eleven-year-old won the Queen Mother Champion Chase; is it time that record was re-written?LadbrokesVCBet (free fifty pound bet)Stan James (free twenty five pound bet)Blue Square (free twenty five pound bet) NATIVE UPMANSHIP12yo trained by Arthur MooreForm: 4352Aged twelve, Native Upmanship will be the oldest horse in the race and he approaches Cheltenham in the worst form of his life. His previous record at the Festival is admirable having twice been runner-up in this in 2003 and 2002 as well as fourth in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase in 2000. His flop in the recent Kinloch Brae suggested that the magnificent Arthur Moore has a massive task to get him back up to Championship level but we can be sure that Arthur would not let him go to Cheltenham only to run poorly. ONEWAY8yo trained by Mark RimellForm: 1111We still don't know whether Mark Rimell will let this free-jumping chaser take his chance against the best as it appears more likely that he will go the handicap route and carry near top weight in the Grand Annual Chase instead. He has been a joy to watch with solid progression all season yielding victories at Worcester (slammed Colonel Frank), Wetherby, Haydock and two wins at Sandown. But his latest victory off a mark of 143 leaves him way short of the standard required to win a Queen Mother. If he ran he wouldn't be disgraced but surely couldn't win, could he? RATHGAR BEAU9yo trained by Eamon SheehyForm: 1411Ran in the County Hurdle last year, a mistake according to his trainer Eamonn Sheehy who told me that "he always jumped hurdles too big" before adding that his target at Cheltenham this year is still undecided and the source of mild disagreement between trainer and jockey. "Shay (Barry) wants to have a crack at the Queen Mother Champion Chase. He feels it's the right choice although in my heart I feel it will be the Daily Telegraph Trophy. Much will depend on what Kicking King does. If he goes for the Gold Cup I would really feel the Daily Telegraph would be the race but if not then the Champion Chase. Either way his development this year has surprised us a little and lets hope he's not stopped improving yet." This horses asset is his superb jumping. He was very good indeed when slamming Central House by an easy seven lengths in the Hilly Way Chase this winter and it should be remembered that he got to within two lengths of Moscow Flyer in Punchestown's Betdaq.com Champion Chase last spring. He won't mind good ground come the Festival and is a fascinating contender and one who could just improve even further. VENN OTTERY10yo trained by Martin PipeForm: P-38Whatever Martin Pipe has achieved at the Cheltenham Festival (32 winners if you needed reminding) will pale into insignificance if this patched-up ten-year-old wins. Plagued with breathing problems all his life, Paul Nicholls worked wonders with him last year, winning a few minor races when clearly well-handicapped before running surprisingly well for a long way in this race behind Azertyuiop, being firmly in contention until three out. What's even more amazing is that run came without the tongue-strap (controversially mis-declared by the owner) that had revitalised him on his previous starts. Sadly, he seems to have regressed since and has a handicap option in the Grand Annual, which is surely more realistic. LadbrokesVCBet (free fifty pound bet)Stan James (free twenty five pound bet)Blue Square (free twenty five pound bet)WELL CHIEF6yo trained by Martin PipeForm: 3F12Yet another top-notch chaser, but one with a very different profile from his big rivals. Whilst Moscow Flyer may be too old, is Well Chief too young? When was the last six-year-old to win the Champion Chase? Full marks if you answered Inkslinger back in 1973.At first glance Well Chief's chances of reversing Game Spirit form with Azertyuiop look slim. Receiving weight (4lbs) he was comfortably beaten and never truly got into the race. However, Martin Pipe has said since that Newbury is not really his track, a view supported by the fact that he ran poorly there in the Gerry Fielden as a hurdler.So can Cheltenham set him alight? His record there is sound. Only two short years ago, this raw, rugged then four-year-old gave everything in the Triumph hurdle, ultimately finishing a gallant second, beaten a head, to Spectrometer.This season he has tasted defeat at the hands of Armaturk on his reappearance - amazing really that off a mark of 153, he should be beaten - and my view is that we witnessed that day a rare Timmy Murphy misjudgement.On from there to the Tingle Creek, where he was more than a match for Azertyuiop and then, famously landing the Victor Chandler back at Cheltenham. Giving away 20lbs to Thisthatantother, this had to go down as one of the best handicap runs of the last ten years.Well Chief might be young, but he's tough, durable and worthy of maximum respect. SUMMARYWe should feel privileged to have three such talented horses as Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer and Well Chief fighting out the race of the week. My vote is with AZERTYUIOP to follow up again. He seems to be the complete performer. He has speed, jumps so well, has proven his ability time after time at the highest level, can accelerate off a fast pace and aged eight is just about at his peak. The other two shouldn't be far away whilst if Shay Barry has his way, watch for Rathgar Beau to come out best of the rest. Source: attheraces.co.uk LadbrokesVCBet (free fifty pound bet)Stan James (free twenty five pound bet)Blue Square (free twenty five pound bet)