2005 US Masters Betting Preview

Phrase "April?" as a question to any golf fan, and the reply shall come back, "US Masters", for this is the month in which the first of the four Majors takes place, and with eight months having passed since the previous wave of the Big Four, the US PGA Championship in August, the swell of anticipation for this event is bigger than for any other. The world's best will jostle for position on the most exclusive piece of real estate on the planet, each hoping to ride all the way in on Sunday evening to claim the Green Jacket, but all realising they are most likely to be dumped by any one of Augusta's numerous waiting pitfalls.Not a year goes by when the tournament does not throw up a brand new story of fairytale proportions. Last year Phil Mickelson became one of the most popular champions in recent times, whilst two years ago it was the turn of Mike Weir to become the first ever winner from Canada. Tiger Woods made history here, and the likes of Ben Crenshaw, Jose Maria Olazabal and Nick Faldo have all had hugely emotional victories in the Masters, and that is just within the last ten years.Amongst the other past Masters of Augusta are included just about all of the great names that have shaped the sport into what it has become today. And the fables do not stop with the victors, as for every happy tale; there is a sizeable clutch of unhappy ones. This course goes hand in hand with heartbreak, with scant solace being found in the blooming Azaleas or perfectly green fairways. As a course, it has well and truly stood the test of time. Unlike some other venues, the alterations have been kept to a minimum, and yet it remains one of the hardest courses the Tour visits. Last year it had the second highest scoring average of all, with only Shinnecock Hills spawning more shots from the players. The principal reason for this stiffness of test is the greens.They are kept in pristine condition, and that means super fast. Fast and true is how most players would wish the greens to be, but when the slopes are as severe as they are at Augusta, this can make for some horrible, and at times embarrassing efforts.Followers of the PGA Tour will have noticed how many of the events this season have been severely hit by inclement weather. A Tour which is designed to follow the hot weather has had curtailed tournaments in four of the last six weeks, and these have all been in the Sunshine State of Florida and the Golden State, California. As Adam Scot put it, "for a Tour designed to follow the sun, we seem to spend a lot of time playing under water."It may be fair to accept that delays are likely this week. Augusta is not immune to a deluge or two, and in fact the image of a squeegee-wielding green keeper is a familiar one. This is a double-edged sword for the players. On the one hand it ought to slow down the greens and make them easier to negotiate. On the other, wet fairways mean the balls will not run on as they might, and hitting the ball from 20 yards further back on each hole makes a substantial difference at this level.It may also mean that organisers are forced to place the pins on the high parts of the green, as this will be the driest area. This would dictate that there will be few generous placements where gullies feed to the hole, as we have become used to seeing on the Sunday at the 16th or 18th for example.Thursday and Friday are forecast to be wet, and whilst the weekend is meant to be dry, we would not be surprised to see further interruptions.As well as the weather, much has been made of the apparent "Big Four" of late, and Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson understandably head up the betting lists. In many ways it would be fantastic to see the four of them fight it out for honours on Sunday evening, but is this expecting too much? This tournament, perhaps above all others has a habit of rewarding the very best competitors, and looking back at results from recent years bears this out. Over the past five seasons, these four players have finished in the top ten on 17 of 25 occasions. For the past three only Woods has finished worse than 7th. The title has gone to one of them in four of the past five stagings.Woods is the 9/2 favourite, and won three of his first six Masters. Two titles have gone his way this year so far, and many expected this start to the season to mark a resounding return to form. However, we are still unconvinced by his driving, and there have even been instances where a usually ultra dependable putting stroke has gone awry. Results of 15th and 22nd for the last two years are not overly significant when one realises his previous record at Augusta, but we are happy to leave the man who has not won any of the last 10 Majors out of the verdict this time.Els and Mickelson are sure to have their followers this week, especially seeing how they came first and second last year. Els shot a splendid final round of 67 but was left in the clubhouse watching Mickelson birdie five of the last seven holes and hole a brilliant putt on the 72nd green to win by one.Near misses have been a trend for Els at the Majors, although his three titles eclipse the one of Mickelson. Both have already multiple times in 2005, Mick in America (including this week at the BellSouth Classic), and Els in the Middle East. However, at around the 7/1 mark, we feel better value lies elsewhere.The man we have in mind is Vijay Singh. The Fijian is ranked as the best player in the world, and with good reason. Since this tournament 12 months ago, nine titles have gone his way, including the PGA Championship, his third Major victory. One of the previous two came at the Masters in 2000, and he brings results from the last three seasons of 7th, 6th and 6th with him.Since losing in the second round of the Accenture World Matchplay on a sodden La Costa in February, the 41 year old has amassed equally inspiring finishes of 5th (Doral), 2nd (Honda), 2nd (Bay Hill) and 12th (Players Championship). Cynics will point to his not winning the two where he came second but was in with a great chance for both. We put these doubters down simply by reminding them that he has won nine times in the last year. This is not a man who has any fear of the winners' circle.There is no weakness to Singh's game, and his length will be an extra asset if the fairways are to be damp. His attacking nature can be his downfall, but it can also be his main weapon, and 9/1 looks good to us, especially when put against the price offering for the other members of this illustrious quartet.During the 1980's and 90's, Europeans had a wonderful time at Augusta, with 10 of 17 green jackets between 1983 and 1999 ending up on their side of the Atlantic. However, the last one was claimed back in 1999, and even more alarming is that Paul Lawrie was the last European to win any Major, at the Open of the same year.There is a strong continental contingent, especially in the youth department. Paul Casey came 6th last and has won during the last month, whilst Luke Donald looks sure to become one of the very best players of the next decade. The likes of Ian Poulter and Sergio Garcia, who was 4th last year could also mount strong challenges whilst Padraig Harrington is around 33/1 but has made a lat journey after tending to his sick father back in Ireland.It is one of the old guard that we are going to plump for however, two-time winner Jose Maria Olazabal. The Spaniard quite simply loves this tournament, and regardless of his form going into the Masters, has managed largely to perform well on every visit. Since 1994, the multiple Ryder Cupper has only once ended the week outside of the top 15. That instance came last year when 30th place was claimed but only a 3rd round 79, his worst eighteen here since 1987 prevented another lofty conclusion.A player with such a fondness for a venue is always worthy of consideration, and some excellent golf of late convinces us that Olly must be included. Last week at the BellSouth Classic he lost out in a playoff to Mickelson, but wasted two gilt edged opportunities to prosper. This followed successive top tens both in Tucson and Doral. Having lost his Tour exemption status last term, the 39 year old is playing on invites only. This is one event where the invites will never dry up due to his status as a past Champion, but with such rich form on his side, we feel there is every chance for another challenge to be made for glory.Jim Furyk is the third of our selections at a best price of 66/1. This is a long price in our opinion for a man who knows how to win a Major, and has done so quite recently at the 2003 US Open. 2004 was a struggle, mainly because of wrist surgery undertaken in the early part of the campaign. That meant that he could not travel to Augusta, but otherwise has five top 14 cheques from six years. Twice he has finished as high as fourth and we feel he has the game to do so once more.In particular his putting has been excellent this term and as has been said, this is vital to success at Augusta. With just a third of the season gone, he is already close to matching his earnings for the entire 2004 effort. Furyk is a classy golfer, with a game that can, and has, served him well in this event.To complete our betting verdict, we are going for Charles Howell III, the only one of the four not to have proved himself by winning a Major. Some old timers may talk of Augusta being in their blood, but for Howell this is very much the case, as he was born and raised in the town.At just 25 years of age, his potential is enormous, although to have just one title to his name at this stage does not do justice to his talents. 2005 started superbly with 3rd place at the Sony Open, and 2nd at the Buick Invitational and two further top 11's have been claimed. His three entries in the Masters have seen the cut successfully negotiated and the results steadily improve. He came 29th in 2002, 28th in 2001 and 13th last year. The young man who grew up adjacent to Amen corner would be a hugely popular winner, and it would be yet another fairytale conclusion. He has at times struggled to produce four rounds of enough quality to really push, but 80/1 is available, leaving scope for an each way punt.