2006 Grand National Tips

Since 1990, only two horses have ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and gone on to win the Grand National in the same season - Miinehoma, who was 7th to The Fellow in the '94 Gold Cup before winning the Grand National a month later, and Rough Quest, runner-up to Imperial Call in the '96 Festival showpiece before prevailing in that year's National. During this same period, no horse has completed back-to-back victories in this four-and-a-half mile contest, which is they most popular horseracing event on earth. Indeed, you have to go back to Red Rum (1973 & '74) to find the last horse that landed consecutive Grand National's. These stats underline the magnitude of the task facing the Willie Mullins-trained Hedgehunter, who will be bidding to follow-up his emphatic win in last year's renewal of this Aintree spectacular on April 8, for which he is a best-priced 6/1 at the time of writing. Another ominous stat for Hedgehunter is that no horse in recent times has carried top weight to victory in this event - he and Royal Auclair have been allotted joint top weight of 11st 12lb this year - and only one horse since 1990 has carried more than 11st to victory, which was Hedgehunter himself last year, carrying 11st 1lb. In addition, if he does go off at 6/1 or shorter, he'll be bidding to defy another long-standing stat: Only two horses - L'Escargot in '75 and Merryman II in '60 (both priced 13/2) - have won at odds of shorter than 7/1 since 1960. It has to be said that the Trevor Hemmings-owned charge posted a truly excellent performance to run War Of Attrition to two and a half lengths in the Gold Cup and, despite his burden of top weight, he's technically well handicapped off a mark of 156, because the assessor would love to reassess him again for this race following his Gold Cup heroics, and would probably stick another 10lb on top of that figure. However, all the stats weigh so firmly against Hedgehunter and, at his cramped odds, the percentage call has to be to oppose him, although he is a worthy favourite. Generally second favourite, but favourite and joint fav in places is Clan Royal, who has demonstrated a distinct liking for Aintree, winning his first two starts here before finishing second to Amberleigh House in that penultimate renewal of this, then looking desperately unlucky to be carried at out the 22nd fence out when a clear leader last year. Whether he would have beaten Hedgehunter last year is debatable and, personally, I doubt it. I also doubt that, despite a light campaign and a good warm up for this when scoring over hurdles last time, he'll be able to beat the Irish raider this year either. But I reckon that it's enough raider from the Emerald Isle, Numbersixvalverde, that is the one to be on, and he looks an outstanding bet at 14/1 with Stan James, while I'd also recommend a small investment in Jack High, who to my mind looks way too big a price at 25/1 with Ladbrokes. Incidentally, Numbersixvalverde and Jack High fought out the finish to last years Irish Grand National, with the former proving the stronger in the closing stages to score by three parts of a length - a fantastic achievement for a novice. Since then, the ten-year-old hasn't got his name on the score sheet, but his campaign has clearly been mapped out with this race as the ultimate objective, and he has really caught the eye in all of his races this season, especially over timber the last twice when given a quite ride on both occasions and staying on well in the latter stages of the races, without being knocked about. Numbersixvalverde jumps for fun, possesses ample stamina, and, unlike many of his rivals, is still relatively unexposed. Off a nice racing weight of 10st 8lb on April 8, I am confident that we'll see the son of Broken Hearted go very close. Ted Walsh's charge Jack High is also off a decent weight - his mark of 137 means that he'll be carrying 10st 7lb - and looks sure to make his presence felt. The eleven-year-old, who came with a rare rattle up the hill to land last season's Betfred Gold Cup at Sandown, has been highly tried over hurdles and fences for the most part this season but came good when appreciating a drop in class at Down Royal last time when outpointing a decent pair, Nil Desperandum and What A Native, despite the 3m 2f trip representing an insufficient test of stamina. As he proved last season, Jack High comes into his own at this time of the year and, like Numbersixvalverde, he is a safe conveyance and has a real stayers' engine. All in all, a bold bid looks assured. Innox has looked an improved performer this season, landing a competitive heat at Cheltenham in November before proving too strong for a decent field in the Racing Post Chase at Sandown. The latter win came after the National weights had been published so, off the same mark of 143, he is another that has a bit in hand of the handicapper and he looks set to go well. However, while he has ran well at trips of up to 3m 5f, I just wander if the Grand National distance will find him out again, as it did last season when he weakened quickly before the second-last, eventually finishing thirty-seven lengths behind Hedgehunter, coming home in seventh place. Cornish Rebel and Sir Rembrandt both ran well in the Gold Cup, the former was still in with a shout when a bad blunder three out cost him any chance, while Robert Alner's charge stayed on in the closing stages to be seventh, beaten thirteen lengths behind War Of Attrition. They both merit respect, although neither look particularly well handicapped and they could well be vulnerable to less exposed types.