2007 Vodafone Oaks

Two years ago, Henry Cecil probably wouldn't have believed you if you had told him he would be going into the 2007 Vodafone Oaks with two of the first three in the antepost betting. However, the Newmarket-based handler has steadily rebuilt his string at his Warren Place yard and does indeed go into Friday's Classic at Epsom with two live chances of landing this Group 1 fillies' contest for an unprecedented eighth time. Cecil would no doubt love to win this prize with Passage Of Time, since the Dansili filly is owned by Prince Khalid Abdulla, who has stuck by the trainer during the difficult periods he has endured. But while she is a worthy favourite, I am convinced that it's Cecil's perceived second string, Light Shift, who will emerge victorious on June 1. At 57/10 with Bet Chronicle she makes far more appeal than her much-vaunted stablemate who is a best-priced 15/8. Light Shift does have questions to answer, particularly with regards to the going. At the time of writing, the recent deluges have caused the ground at Epsom to be described by officials as 'soft'. It's unlikely to deteriorate further, but the selection has yet to race on a surface any easier than good to firm. However, Cecil said after her authoritative victory in her penultimate start at Newbury that she would improve for encountering cut in the ground. If Cecil is right - and one would assume he's put Light Shift through her paces under such conditions on the gallops - then she's potentially a filly right out of the top draw. The daughter of Kingmambo demonstrated an impressive turn of foot to come from off the pace to cosily beat All My Loving and nine other rivals in Cheshire Oaks last time. Strictly on form, that probably wasn't an Oaks-winning performance, but it's not easy to come from so far back to score on the Roodee, and there's every chance that there's a good deal more to come from her.In any case, you can pick holes in the form of virtually every one of the 15 entries left in at the five-day stage, but the upward curve that Light Shift is on looks the steepest to me. Even though Passage Of Time won a Group 1 as a two-year-old - beating colts I might add - she still hasn't achieved a level of form that's by any means outstanding, certainly not commensurate with her price anyway. Perhaps the Guineas third Simply Perfect, winner of last season's Fillies' Mile, boasts the best form, but she lacks the scope of the selection and a few others.One of the others in question is the Ed Dunlop-trained Dalvina. The ready winner of an all-weather maiden on her sole start as a juvenile, the Grand Lodge filly showed her rivals a clean pair of heels in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket where she scooted six lengths clear of Sudoor. The latter failed to frank the form when beaten at Goodwood next time, but there's little doubt that Dalvina is a horse going places and, if she handles underfoot conditions, she ought to make her presence felt.All My Loving looks the best of Aidan O'Brien's three raiders, although there's no real reason to believe she can turn the tables on Light Shift. Fellow Irish trainer John Oxx's Four Sins may fare best of those crossing the pond. She went down by a short-head to the subsequent 1000 Guineas runner-up Arch Swing on her reappearance at Leopardstown, but then showed improved form when stepped up to 10 furlongs at Naas where she outpointed Cherry Hinton by two and a half lengths.By dual Derby and Arc winner Sinndar, Four Sins should be fully effective over the Oaks trip and while the ground is something of an imponderable, she has strong each-way prospects. As does Ralph Beckett's Kayah at a nice price. She has a lot more on her plate compared to when landing the Oaks Trial at Lingfield last time but, unlike the lion's share of her rivals, she's won on an easy surface and is proven over the trip, so she cannot be dismissed lightly.Verdict - 1pt Light Shift @ 57/10 (Bet Chronicle)