2009 BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF TIPS

I expect a lot of European-based punters will be piling onto the Irish-trained favourite Lillie Langtry. AP O'Brien's filly scored in the Tattersall's Timeform Fillies 800 against a field of 14. There was also a key victory in the (Group 2) Debutante Stakes at Leopardstown in early August. She also came 2nd against a 22-strong field in the Coolmore Stud Fillies Sprint Stakes. My issue with Lillie Langtry is that she's likely to be a furlong short. All her victories have come in 7 furlong races and the step up to a full mile on the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf may be just a bit too big of a step against this type of opposition. You'll find Lillie Langtry at 3/1 in the morning-line and 4.1 on Betfair.Effectively handicapping a million dollar stakes race for two-year old fillies isn't exactly the easiest task and I have a feeling that this is one of the most wide-open races on the first day. House of Grace is the second place favourite at the moment and this lightly raced filly boasts two wins from two starts. I am especially impressed with her victory in the JP Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland over an all-weather surface. We don't have a huge amount of results to work from, but this filly is well-priced for a reason. You'll find her at 4/1 in the morning line and trading at around 6.2 on Betfair. I think a few punters may have a bash on Smart Seattle on a place and I can understand why as I'm a fan of Graham Motion and this filly's sire Smart Strike. She was beaten by House of Grace in the Jessamine Stakes and was also bested by Tapitsfly in the PG Johnson Stakes at Saratoga. Smart Seattle is at 8/1 in the morning line and 7.4 on Betfair. My selection for this race, however, is the value-oriented Tapitsfly. Tapit horses have had a mixed year but this one seems to be an extremely progressive filly. She was unfortunate in her last race, the Miss Grillo Stakes where she came second to Dad's Crazy. I think one was a bit of an anomaly as Tapitsfly didn't get the pace to work off of that she usually enjoys. I've watched a few of her workouts on video and I think this grey filly has the speed and the temperament to make this one happen. You'll find her at 8/1 in the morning line and 15.0 on Betfair. She has victories over both dirt and turf in Stakes races and has never finished outside the top 3. I think this is your each-way selection and I expect Frank Jones Junior to be standing in the winners circle. I am backing Tapitsfly for the each-way win here.