2009 HENNESSY GOLD CUP AT NEWBURY BETTING TIPS

The Hennessy Gold Cup is easily one of the most exciting and widely-anticipated races in the 2009/10 National Hunt season and we’re set for an absolute belter at Newbury this Saturday. There are plenty of big names set to contest this race including Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Denman, the Queen’s horse Barbers Shop and last year’s Grand National winner Mon Mome.
It’s a diverse field and a very tricky handicap to navigate with several plausible winners. Paul Nicholls’ superstar Denman is the current favourite, by some distance, with Victor Chandler listing him at a 7/2 price. What a Friend trades at 6/1 alongside the well-supported Barbers Shop. You’ll find Killyglen at 7/1 and Cappa Bleu at 10/1.
Other notables include Gone to Lunch, State of Play and Ballyfitz at 14/1. Casey Jones trades alongside Nenuphar Collonges at 16/1 while Snowy Morning is available at 20/1. Former Grand National favourite My Will sits alongside War of Attrition and An Accordion at 25/1. Niche Market, Kornati Kid, Offshore Account and Chelsea Harbour trade at 33/1. New Alco and Joe Lively sit at 40/1 while Mon Mome is listed at a lengthy 50/1 in the antepost market.
Denman has had a long and prestigious career and the 9 year old chocolate gelding out of Paul Nicholls yard has never finished outside the top 2 in any race he’s run. That’s an incredible statistic with the only exception coming in the Tote Sport Bowl Chase at last year’s Grand National where he fell heavily 2 out. He is most certainly not the greatest of his generation, but he has simply accomplished so much that it is hard for me to bet against him this year, despite him carrying the most weight.
Barbers Shop is attracting plenty of attention and has been tipped by several pundits to spring a surprise on Denman. He is well-weighted and enjoys the surface at Newbury, but I just don’t see his record indicating he has the chops to take this race. He doesn’t win at the highest level and needs to run against horses like Abbeybraney and Kinkeel to get victories while he comes up short when facing the likes of Kauto Star and Imperial Commander. If Denman wasn’t running, I would have more enthusiasm.
Killyglen is an interesting selection, but I think the step-up in class may be too much as well. I haven’t seen a victory against runners of this calibre and, while he boasts an excellent starts to wins ratio, I just don’t think he has enough in the tank for this one.
If you’re looking for an outside bet, or somebody to play on the bottom end of your forecasts, I suggest Cappa Bleu as a solid selection. This Evan William-trained bay gelding already has a run under his belt this season, and even though it was an indifferent run (3/5) I like his victory in the Foxhunter’s at last year’ Cheltenham Festival. I think he’s a strong runner who could be well-positioned to capitalize on any mistakes made by the leading pack.
If you’re looking for the true outside bet, go for Miss Venetia William Mon Mome- a horse that has shown his quality over long distances and that he can handle a massive field. He’s run against quality horses and while he doesn’t boast the best win ratio, he always performs admirably. He’s got second place finishes to Kilbeggan Blade, Possol, and Halcon Genelardais and that is nothing to sneeze at. His 50/1 antepost prices makes him an interesting place selection.
My tip is 1. Denman 2. Cappa Bleu 3.Mon Mome.