2009 PADDY POWER GOLD CUP PICKS AND CONTENDERS

The first major Graded event for this season's jumps racing kicks off on Saturday in the 2009 Paddy Power Gold Cup and punters from all over the UK and Ireland are having a tough time cutting through the details and figuring out who is the actual clear favourite here. Will the Gold Cup go to an up-and-coming jumper set for a breakthrough season? Or will it go to an old hand who's won the race before like Our Vic?According to the odds, the shortest price at the moment appears to be on Chapoturgeon, a 5 year-old grey gelding out of Pail Nicholls yard. He's got 12 lifetime starts with a 33% strike rate in Chase company. His last action this year was a 2nd place finish to Gauvin in a 5-strong field at Cheltenham in mid-April. Prior to that he fell in the John Smith's Manifesto Handicap Chase when on the first hurdle and the race was eventually won by Tartak. He really shook things up when he took the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase at last year's Cheltenham Festival, topping a strong field of 20. He is error-prone on his opening races of the year and that could turn the tide as punters shy away come closer to race time. He is trading at 6/1 with Victor Chandler. Tatenen is an interesting selection and he is attracting a fair amount of attention, priced at 12/1 with Victor Chandler. Another 5 year-old from Paul Nicholls, he's been in relatively indifferent form since the fall of 2008 when he scored twice and came a close 2nd at Leopardstown. His only win against a field of more than 10 came nearly 3 years ago when he won the Prix Finot at Auteuille. He spent last year chasing some Grade 1 victories and seemed to be coming up just short, falling in the Arkle Chase when 2nd at Cheltenham and finishing a close second to Kalahari King in the Maghull Novices Chase at Aintree. Northern Alliance looks like an interesting selection and the 8 year-old chocolate gelding could score one for AJ Martin's group here. He took the Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase at Listowel against a tough field of 18. He came 4th out of 20, losing to Chapoturgeon at Cheltenham last year. He's a tough selection, but is capable of winning the race. You'll find him around 10/1 with Victor Chandler. At the moment, my tip is the value bet on Tartak. If he gets the right type of trip, then I think he could be very hard to beat. He has a better than 25% strike race in Chase action and I think his best point of reference is his victory over the impressive Deep Purple in the John Smith's Novices Handicap Chase at Aintree in April. Some may think the size of the field works against him, but I'm not getting too concerned about it. He also came 5th in the Arkle behind some quality runners who are a few steps above the competition in this race. He came dead last in his first run of the season, but I'm willing to overlook that as a bad day out. Overall, I think he is a Grade 2 level horse running in a Grade 3 against Grade 3 competition. I think there are horses that can beat him, but you won't find value on a proven performer like this elsewhere in the race. Tartak is currently trading at 25/1 at Victor Chandler.