2009 PREAKNESS STAKES AT PIMLICO PREDICTIONS

After Mine That Bird took the field to task on Derby Day at Churchill Downs the betting market for the 2009 Preakness Stakes was literally turned upside down. I would have stood to make a lot of cash had Mine That Bird not made one of the most epic charges in the 135 year history of the Run For The Roses, but I did have him to place as a cover bet along with my prediction of Pioneerof The Nile-I Want Revenge-Musket Man. Had I Want Revenge not been a late scratch, would Mine That Bird have been able to mount that now-famous dash? That's one for the horseracing gods to figure out, thankfully I made a small profit, but it could have been much bigger if things had gone according to plan. First and foremost, I'm going for Pioneerof The Nile again here. I think he did his best considering the conditions on the ground at Churchill Downs and had Mine That Bird not been able to produce that moment of magic, he would have emerged the slim winner. I think Pimlico's surface will favour him and will enable him to really put the afterburners on heading into the final stretch. Pioneerof The Nile likes to take up an outside spot heading into the first turn usually around 3 or 4th from the front, but he likes having all the horses to his left. He works best on the outside and I think we'll see that again here. I think he will finish much stronger here and I am pushing all in on Pioneerof The Nile. Musket Man was one of my biggest Derby Day victories and anybody who had followed my predictions for the 2009 Run for The Roses knew that he was the third horse completing all of my exotics. I'm confident he will show again for this race, but his odds will likely be a tad shorter. I still think it's a bit beyond him to pull off the win, but he will definitely be a contender. Papa Clem performed above expectations and did better than I certainly thought he would. His connections will be looking to build on a 4th place finish and I'm confident that they'll approach this race with a slightly different game plan. Friesen Fire was a total bust and I'm glad I had absolutely nothing to do with him last Saturday. A victory in the mud in Louisiana doesn't make you a derby contender, no matter what anybody says. I expect good performances from Take The Points and Big Drama. Vineyard Haven still has some question marks over him. Stardom Bound has plenty of Grade 1 victories under his belt and I think he will carry a short price. Overall, this one is wide open, but I'm confident that the Derby's strong performers will be able to put together another excellent show. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that The Pamplemousse will be in the running for this one. I wouldn't go too crazy on Mine That Bird, but a small bets on him probably won't kill your profit margin.