2009 PREAKNESS STAKES BETTING TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Now that we've finally got the post positions released for this Saturday's widely-anticipated Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Racetrack we can get down to the nitty-gritty of figuring out where to find the value. Anybody who's read any of my triple-crown coverage already knows that I'm a massive fan of Pioneerof The Nile- one of the best three year-olds I've seen in my lifetime. I got paid out after he triumphed in the Santa Anita Derby and this left-coast favourite put in a winning performance in the Derby- it took a "Miracle in the Mud" to beat him. I don't fancy that happening twice. He will be coming out of gate #9 and that's about where I'd want him to be. Traditionally, he likes to take up third position early and keep pace with the top 2 just on the outside. If he can get into that favoured position at the right time, I think he's odds-on. There is plenty of hype coming into this race and Pioneerof The Nile is the horses with the skill level, pedigree, jockey and the ability to close out a race against quality opposition. Grade 1 victories are what makes a champion and Pioneerof The Nile has more Grade 1 victories than the others in the field. He carries a price similar to his Derby price of 5/1. Rachel Alexandra has been the most controversial entry here after an incredible Kentucky Oaks performance where she almost lapped the field. Listed as the 8-5, I expect her price to drop significantly on the day as the media attention and gender-based betting should see her possibly drop to odds-on at post time. I think the fuss over Rachel Alexandra is a bit ridiculous. The Kentucky Oaks was her first Grade 1 win and she doesn't have experience against the boys. I'm sure the National Organization for Women will drop a big bet on her, but I'm just hoping we don't see a repeat of the Eight Belles fiasco last year. I am not tipping Rachel Alexandra to even finish top 3. Post #13 does not bode well for this filly. Mine That Bird is listed at 6/1 and will be coming out of post 2. That could present a problem for his team, as he will need plenty of space (and a lot of luck) to pull off something similar to the Derby performance. I can't really see too much happening for him here unless somebody opens up a massive hole going into the final stretch. I don't see a repeat for Mine That Bird. Musket Man is a personal favourite of mine and I've made a tidy sum off of him this year. Everybody who read my Derby coverage will know that I tipped him as a lock for 3rd place- and look what happened? I actually think he's a real contender here and is the definition of a dark horse. 8/1 is about right. Papa Clem did better than I thought he would in the Derby and is a definite contender for the lower order or your show-tickets. He's right there in the middle of the pack at post #7 and carries an enticing price. 12/1 is a solid each-way wager. Flying Private is getting a bit of attention thanks to Wayne Lukas' 5 previous Preakness wins but 5/1 is way too short for this horse who, again, doesn't have the high-quality victories I need before I choose a winner. Big Drama at 10/1 will likely be the lead horse in the early going if he can start properly. The price is solid, but the runner isn't and I think he'll need some luck to get onto any winning tickets. Friesen Fire proved that a tight pedigree and a win on a sloppy track in Lousiana doesn't make a Derby winner. 6/1 is a horrible price as he was an absolute bust in the Derby. Luv Gov, Tone It Down, General Quarters and Terrain are all write-offs for me, but I may have a bash on Take The Points- this gray is at his best on the dirt and could be a solid bet for third spot at 30/1. VERDICT1. Pioneerof The Nile2. Papa Clem3. Musket Man4. Rachel Alexandra5. Take The Points