2009 PREAKNESS STAKES PREVIEW AND BETTING TIPS

The drama surrounding Rachel Alexandra doesn't mean much to me personally, as I have one horse in mind for this race and one horse only- Pioneerof The Nile. Robbed at Churchill by one of the most epic moments in the past two decades of horseracing, I feel as though Mine That Bird is incredibly underpriced at 7/2. The odds of repeating that moment of magic (with a different jockey to boot) are very slim. That horse was at 50/1 for a reason. He showed that he has plenty of gas in the tank to close, but the issue is going to be room. Whether he can mount a tricky comeback again relies on the conditions on the ground (sloppiness hampered both Pioneer and Musket Man from really going into 6th gear in the stretch) and starting position. If I see Mine That Bird at 1 or 16, then that's it- no chance. The long-term weather forecast for Maryland has a chance of Thunder Storms listed for Thursday, but things look fairly dry throughout midweek. They are predicting Thunder Storms to resume on Saturday, but they are likely to begin in the early evening. The course should be sunny throughout much of the day. The more rain there is, the better things look for Mine That Bird. Personally, I expect the going to be good-to-soft and we may even see the ground rated as good or even fast by the time the Preakness rolls around in the day's card. High temperatures should dry things out following the Thursday night rain dump. I think this plays to Pioneerof The Nile's advantage. He was unable to hit his 6th gear thanks to the Churchill slop and he wasn't able to close the race in the fashion he did at Santa Anita. At the end of the day however, this horse should have won the race, and even when he was deprived of his incredible finishing ability (a common issue with a left-coast-based horse) he was still able to hang onto the 2nd place finish. Musket Man is another to keep your eye on thanks to his excellent ability to pace things out properly. He doesn't turn it on as much as Pioneer does heading into the final stretch, but his positional sense is excellent. I will, once again, be using him as the tail of my exotics and I got paid out on him last race, I expect to again. Rachel Alexandra performed very well in the Kentucky Oaks, but that's because it was the Kentucky Oaks. This is a Derby horse who has been competing in the lower-echelons for much of her short career. Her Oaks victory represented her first shot at Grade 1 racing and while the margin was big, the field wasn't that impressive. A great record of 1-2-2-1-1-1-1 belies a quality runner, but I don't see the action at the highest levels on her formcard with the majority of wins coming in Grade 2 or even Grade 3 races. She's in with a shot here, but for an odds-on favourite I want to see more Grade 1 victories than what she's got so far. She can run a race against mediocre opposition and dominate, but can she step up against the best of the best and still win by such a margin? No way. If you look at the horses she was up against in the Oaks, not a single one has ever even won a race before. What's that tell you?Papa Clem did well in the Derby, finishing 4th, which was about two places higher than I'd predicted. A solid run, but I think he was helped by the sloppy conditions. Friesen Fire proved to be a bust and Dunkirk is nowhere to be seen. Just as I'd predicted. I don't see much happening for Big Drama, Luv Gov, Tone it Down or Terrain. I am interested in Take The Points who finished an impressive second to one of my personal faves The Pamplemousse in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. He came 4th to Pioneer in the Santa Anita Derby. Without Rachel Alexandra, I would say that Take The Points could be a very good place bet, especially with a mistake from Musket Man.