2009 TINGLE CREEK CHASE AT SANDOWN TIPS AND SELECTIONS

It’s a small field, but an extremely competitive one, with 5 classy jumpers set to contest the Tingle Creek Chase this Saturday at Sandown. In my eyes there are four possible winners here, with Mahogany Blaze the only one I’m excluding- I don’t think he has the quality to tackle the field here, but if he runs a perfect race and gets a few mistakes from the leading pack, he may be able to spring a surprise. Not sure if that 20/1 is enough, in my eyes, as he is up against serious talent here.
Big Zeb is obviously one of the bigger names coming into this one and he’s been the favourite since the odds were even announced. Victor Chandler has him listed at 13/8 in their ante post market and I can see him dropping in price as the punters pile on. He’s going to be a popular selection for the top end of the forecasts and I think a number of punters will also be using him as the start or the mid-point for doubles and trebles. He’s got question marks over top though, with a number of observers still up in the air about his overall jumping ability. He has run races where he’s shown the skill and fleet-of-footness necessary to win at this level, but he’s also run a few messy races. He got things of to a winning start at Navan in early November and that was against a Grade 1-caliber field. That speaks well for him, but he can be error-prone and I think that’s why the odds are so slim on some of his chief competitors.
Twist Magic won this race back on 2007 against Voy Por Ustedes and has been there-or-thereabouts on the Grade 1 and 2 circuit for quite some time. He’s beaten some quality runners and will not need anything extra to beat Big Zeb. I think it comes down to the type of race he’s going to run, and you know that Paul Nicholls sends his jumpers out prepared. He fell in last year’s edition, but wasn’t challenging at the time. He opened the season with a disappointing 3rd place finish at Exeter in early November, but will be looking to bounce back here. He is 5/2 with Victor Chandler.
Well Chief brings plenty of experience to the race and this 10 year-old David Pipe jumper definitely still has plenty left in the tank. Barring a fall at Cheltenham in the Queen Mother, this gelding hasn’t finished outside the top 3 since November of 2003. He finished 3rd to Moscow Flyer in this race back in December of 2004 and my main issue against backing him heavily is that he can be a bit error-prone. He did get things off to a winning start at Cheltenham in mid-November where he topped out Mahogany Blaze. The way he asserted himself on the stretch run was an encouraging site and I’m hearing a lot of punters looking to pile on here. You’ll find him at 3/1 with Victor Chandler.
Forpadydeplasterer is a fan-favourite of the first order and this 7 year-old Irish jumper is well-poised to strike at what has to be considered value for this race. He showed his true form back at Cheltenham where he topped Kalahari King and a field of 17 in the Arkle. He’s been consistently finishing 1 or 2 since he’s come off the novice circuit and has been challenging quality runners in Grade 1’s and 2’s since then. He’s isn’t near the Kauto Star/Denman level, but he is certainly capable of beating the Celestial Halo’s and Kalahari Kings of the world. Big Zeb is within his range, and with a perfect ride, I think Forpady is a great bet at 6/1. Use him at the top end of your forecasts if you’re looking for a serious value play. If his price holds, I would advise playing him in a forecast key.
Forpadydeplasterer is my pick for this field where value is hard to find. Big Zeb or Twist Magic on the bottom.