2010 BELMONT STAKES TIPS AND LATEST BETTING PREDICTIONS
We've got a wide open feature race ahead of us at Belmont today and it's an intriguing set of odds to deal with so I'm starting to get the feeling that we might see a rather surprising result.
Taking a look at the conditions on the ground, you start to understand why Fly Down (Mineshaft) could be a very dangerous contender. He's got a Grade 2 win over a fast Belmont surface in the Dwyer- scoring an impressive 99 Beyer speed figure. I won't count his ninth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby against him as it looks increasingly like a one-off bad run. He boasts plenty of tactical speed, but is yet to flex it at a 1.5 mile distance. I can see him trying to make a serious move 2 furlongs from the wire and it may come down to a question of whether Ice Box (Pulpit) will be able to run him down. He's a strong 9/2 bet under Jose Velazquez.
Speaking of Ice Box, odds-wise, he still looks the one to beat but late closers like him don't exactly have the best of records going 1.5 on big sandy, but I get the feeling that it might be balanced out by having Nick Zito in his corner. This classy chestnut was my big for the Derby and would have won that race 95 times out of 100. He'll need a stronger kick to get home the way he did in the derby, but with less horses in the field he has a much easier task ahead of him. A solid contender and I expect his price to settle down a bit and possibly get closer to the 4/1 mark as the money spreads itself out. I think a lot of people may see Ice Box as a beatable favourite and that will likely add some value to his price.
The early pace here is likely to be the impressive First Dude (Stephen Got Even) who made lots of friends when turning in a quality race in the Preakness to finish second to Lookin at Lucky (Afleet Alex). Turning in a 101 Beyer in a losing performance is a solid feat and he's a big horse with plenty of power. I don't think we've seen all he can do yet, but I expect this field to push him all the way. He is a plausible winner at 7/2 but I think the odds are a bit too short for a front-runner in a race with lots of tactical speed.
Interactif (Broken Vow) is the late entry to the race and Todd Pletcher's barn has been firing all over the country this year. I like the price and I've paid attention to some of his races out on the west coast. He's multiple a Graded winner who hasn't really shown us all he can do yet and I think his versatility could be the key here today. Most think he's a turf runner and I think he'll be a fine one for years if he stays healthy, but his ability to run, and win, on dirt surfaces can't be understimated. I think the track conditions suit him and he may give First Dude a little more than he bargained for. I'm all over him at 12/1 and I have a feeling the price could come down as the betting public searches out a longer-odds selection.
Other ones to keep your eyes on for your exotic tickets are Uptowncharlybrown (Limehouse) who could be a speed threat. He hasn't really shown us his best yet, but could progress here with a month and a half to rest since his last race.
Calvin Borel will surely attract some betting volume thanks to him drawing the 1 stall with Dave in Dixie (Dixie Union). Currently trading at 20/1, this bay or brown colt hasn't scored since his maiden at Del Mar last year. He ran second in the Grade 2 Robert B Lewis stakes at Santa Anita in his seasonal debut in February. That's about the best reference on there, but I think there will be quite a few out there who think that the jockey switch and the rail position could be what pays dividends. Watch for him to possibly come late.
I will be taking Ice Box and Interactif to win but I will also be playing Ice Box in each-way exactors with Interactif, Dave in Dixie, Uptowncharlybrown, First Dude and Fly Down just to cover him if he doesn't manage to catch them. I deployed a similar strategy in the Kentucky Derby and wound up scoring a win only on Super Saver (Maria's Mon) and an each-way exactor box on Ice Box and Super Saver. It could be a similar story here, but Zito's charge won't have to go as wide and won't have to deal with as much traffic. Interactif is your classic outside spoiler- versatile and low-profile. He'll either win it or fail spectacularly.
We're set for a real classic here today in the 2010 Belmont Stakes.
ODDS AND POST POSITIONS
#1 Dave in Dixie - 20/1
#2 Spangled Star - 30/1
#3 Uptowncharlybrown - 10/1
#4 Make Music For Me - 10/1
#5 Fly Down - 9/2
#6 Ice Box - 3/1
#7Drosselmeyer - 12/1
#8 Game On Dude - 10/1
#9 Stately Victor - 15/1
#10 Stay Put - 20/1
#11 First Dude - 7/2
#12 Interactif - 12/1