2010 CELEBRITY BIG BROTHER ODDS AND BETTING TIPS

I had trouble sleeping last night and it wasn’t the usual post Christmas back to work blues. I live about two miles from Elstree and what did it for me was that in walking distance of my bedroom Vinnie Jones, Stephanie Beecham, Sisqo and Stephen Baldwin had just squeezed themselves into a Mini with seven other ‘celebrities’. Over the past few years reality television has delivered the surreal better than Dali and Magritte ever did. As ubiquitous host Davina McCall pointed out during the opening show last night “who’d have thought fifteen years ago we’d have ever seen Vinnie Jones and Stephanie Beecham sit down and discuss the relative merits of property off Mulholland Drive on our screens”.
When betting on this version of the show there are a few things to take into account:

• Since the show extended the run time up to three weeks in Series 4, no male has been successful.
• Shilpa Shetty was the only non-British winner in the six series (I’m not counting Ulrika who is an honorary Brit). Suggesting the five non-Brits in this series will need a miracle (or a major race scandal).
• The three male winners of the show (Jack Dee, Mark Owen and Bez) all had a vulnerable soft sided public nature – the very opposite of opening market leader Vinnie Jones.

Here we take a look at the contestants and give them their own ‘Celeb’ rating and likely ‘Winner’ rating out of 10.
VIINIE JONES – Celeb rating 9/10, Winner rating 7/10.
The menace from the football pitch made the easy transition to menace on the big screen. Although apparently jovial and mild mannered on the opening night I’d wonder how long he can keep that up before something or somebody gets his goat. If he manages to ensure that his famous temper is kept under wraps then he’s a rightful favourite, but that’s a big IF and for that reason there must be better bets at bigger prices.
JONAS ALTBERG (BASSHUNTER) – Celeb rating 4/10, Winner rating 5/10.
My music tastes are such that when I saw Jonas’ stage name in the weekend papers I thought he was a master fisherman. A kind of Scandinavian Bob Nudd! He entered the house in a tuxedo and then proceeded to have one dimensional chats that went nowhere and a bit of woeful flirting with the ladies (trust me I know about this). A very weak (and therefore opposable) second favourite.
DANE BOWERS – Celeb rating 6/10, Winner rating 6/10.
Hoping to emulate Mark Owen in becoming a former boyband member to win the show. I’m sure Take That had many more fans than Bowers’ group though – in fact I’ve genuinely forgot what they were called. In the house for the potential conflict with Alex Reid, which was played down in their first exchange of “alright there fella”.
LADY SOVEREIGN – Celeb rating 3/10, Winner rating 8/10.
My long lasting hatred of ‘Sov’ will make it hard to judge her chances impartially. I despise her music and all she stands for, especially the way she talks BUT as is the state of the country at the moment she could appeal to the most important people of all, the voters. Therefore she has to rate as a more likely winner than most.
SISQO – Celeb rating 7/10, Winner rating 5/10.
His introduction to the house told us he was responsible for the resurgence of the thong in the fashion stakes and that has to count for something. Has been dining out on that one song for nearly ten years though. Harmless enough character with potential to go far although the fact he isn’t British will count against him in the latter stages (as pointed out above).
STEPHANIE BEECHAM – Celeb rating 8/10, Winner rating 4/10.
Starred in famous soaps both sides of the Atlantic so won’t be short on fans. The ‘older women’ in this type of programme either become the matriarchal mainstay of the series and go far or get woefully neglected in the edits and ignored by the voters as they moan in the corner. Personality will be a big factor and her backers will need her to smile rather than sulk.
ALEX REID – Celeb rating 2/10, Winner rating 3/10.
Hoping to do an Ulrika Jonsson – turning first night boos into a winning appearance. The big difference here is that he is only known for one thing. Played down front page news of a scrap with Dane Bowers as soon as he entered the house – which was unfortunate for him because that potential conflict is the thing likely to keep him in there.
NICOLA TAPPENDEN – Celeb rating 1/10, Winner rating 9/10.
Nicola T can go the whole way! She has history on her side – three out of three female winners since the series extended beyond three weeks, British and little known (ala Chantelle in series 4). Seems to have a nice way about her and was one of very few housemates to ask questions rather than talk about themselves on opening night.
EKATERINA IVANOVA – Celeb rating 2/10, Winner rating 2/10.
Best we don’t go into what she is actually famous for, but having spoken to John McCririck he says he’s disappointed he wasn’t asked back this year as he might have had a chance for some romance. No fan base as such and unlikely to last very long.
STEPHEN BALDWIN – Celeb rating 8/10, Winner rating 4/10.
Part of my trouble sleeping was my sadness at seeing the man responsible for one of the coolest film characters of all time resorting to zany preaching. As McManus in The Usual Suspects he delivers one of the best lines in film history as he sidles up behind Pete Postlethwaite’s ‘Kobayashi’ character and whispers menacingly “Just so you know, I’m the guy, I’m the one that’s gonna get you”. More likely to say “I’m the one that’s gonna pray for you” nowadays and unlikely to find much support in the preacher-unfriendly British viewing public.
HEIDI FLEISS – Celeb rating 2/10, Winner rating 2/10.
A big name in America for all the wrong reasons, but has hardly warranted a mention in the British press. Up against all the recent trends for a winner and makes very little betting appeal. Could and should be first to be evicted.