2010 DUBAI WORLD CUP ANTEPOST ODDS AND PREVIEW

Betfair has the distinction of being the first online wagering site to offer up ante-post odds on the widely-anticipated 2010 Dubai World Cup at the brand new Meydan Racecourse outside of Dubai. The synthetic Tapeta surface received rave reviews from jockeys and trainers alike as they ran several practice races last evening. The Racing Post quoted top jock Frankie Dettori declaring “It is awesome and I am gobsmacked.”
There is still a fair amount of ante-post fluff on the Betfair Dubai World Cup 2010 market. By fluff, I mean horse thrown onto the list that have absolutely no chance of running in the races but are merely out here to soak up cash from uninformed punters. Case in point- whoever listed Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia D’Oro) on there at 3.2 as if we’d ever see that super-filly running on that synthetic surface. Eliminate Rachel as she won’t be there, as much of a spectacle as it would be.
Zenyatta (Street Cry [IRE]) is also on the list and I would say there is only a 10% chance that the undefeated synthetic specialist will actually trek to Dubai. The connections don’t really need the money and the only real reason would be that it is the only plausible step up for Zenyatta having won the 2009 Breeders Cup Classic in dramatic fashion.
For the serious contenders, I don’t think you should pay too much attention to the prices right now. What we should focus on here is deciphering who are the likely contenders to run and what we expect a reasonable price to be.
On to the serious contenders, we have prices laid on Well Armed (Tiznow) who is a very all-over-the-place type of runner who followed up an easy victory in the world’s richest race with a dead-last performance in a Grade 2 at Del Mar. The 7 year-old bay gelding finished 3rd to superstar Curlin (Smart Strike) in the 2008 running of the Dubai World Cup. If the race was being run at Nad Al Sheba again, I would say that Well Armed may be worth a look, but he’s never demonstrated any form of skill over Tapeta as his record involves races on the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita, the polytrack at Del Mar and the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park. He has been sitting out since his Del Mar run thanks to a bone chip discovered shortly after that underwhelming performance. You can back Well Armed at 2.6 on Betfair, but I would question your mental fitness if you did at this point. I would lay Well-Armed at 8.0.
Asiatic Boy (Not For Sale [ARG]) is likely to be pointed at the Dubai circuit for a 3rd year, but this 7 year-old bay, owned by Sheikh Al Maktoum himself, has been in rough form since winning Round 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge, running near the back of the 2009 Dubai World Cup and then following that up with places in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster and the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap. He was fourth, beaten by Rachel Alexandra in her incredible performance at the Woodward Stakes and then he finished dead last in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, won by American 3 year-old of the year Summer Bird. Asiatic Boy would do well to enter a more winnable race at Meydan and I think his Dubai World Cup chances are slim to none. I would lay at 40.0.
Kiaran McLaughlin’s Albertus Maximus (Albert the Great) is unraced since a sixth place finish in last year’s Dubai World Cup and had been in rollicking form previously. I don’t consider him a great selection for the 2010 Dubai World Cup as we haven’t seen any recent form and don’t really have a huge amount to work with. He has been beaten twice in his career by Well Armed and I just don’t see him being able to top a first-rate field. He is a contender with Grade 1 wins, but has no Tapeta experience. I’m steering clear, but would lay at 18.0. He’s owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum and I expect him to run, but to be well off the winner’s circle.
My Indy (Indygo Shiner) is a Godolphin-owned 6 year-old horse that was a Nad Al Sheba terror since starting his career at Palermo. After his Argentina-Dubai transfer it took him a while to get going but he wound up capturing the first two rounds of the Al Maktoum Challenge before coming in fifth in the 2009 Dubai World Cup. He would have been in with a real shout but weakened over the last furlong. Ironically, it could be his 100% record in Argentina that gives me confidence in his chances- his maiden and Grade 2 victory came on an all-weather surface. My Indy is a solid 8.0 shot to me.
Keeping with the International flair we’re seeing, I think one of the strongest favourites is set to be the high-profile 6 year-old Japanese bay mare Vodka (Tanino Gimlet [JPN]), who comes in fresh off a victory in the Grade 1 Japan Cup. I expect a short price on Vodka thanks to volume from the Asian betting markets who will be backing her in typical patriotic fashion. I expect the Japanese and Hong Kong syndicates to be out in full force on this one, and I get a bit of confidence from the fact that she’s a turf horse and a well-laid Tapeta surface works in her favour. Last year’s stint on the Nad Al Sheba turf wasn’t really anything to write home about aside from a 7th of 16 in the Dubai Duty Free which was won by Gladiatorus. I expect to see 6.0 on Vodka, but a much shorter price should she run.
Speaking of favourites, Twice Over (Observatory) is going to command a very short price should he have a go at this year’s edition of the Dubai Festival. The 5 year old bay is as cultured as they come and has run successfully in France and England while putting in a respectable 3rd to Zenyatta in the 2009 Classic. A top-class runner out of Juddmonte farms, he has Group 1, 2 and 3 victories and has run against some of the best names in recent racing history like Sea the Stars, Henrythenavigator, Zenyatta and Vision D’Etat. There are question marks over whether he can handle the all-weather surface, but I don’t think shipping to Dubai would hurt his chances as he did well in the Classic after shipping in from England. He looks progressive and possesses the pedigree and the record of a potential Dubai World Cup Winner. He is a strong 4.0 contender.
Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat) is, in my opinion, the early favourite for the 2010 Dubai World Cup. He’s had a banner year with only a single blemish on his 2009 record, that being a 5th placed finish in the Strub Stakes at Santa Anita but I think that was anomaly. This 5 year-old bay finished 2nd to Zenyatta in the Breeders Cup Classic, 2nd to Interpatation in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch at Belmont. Prior to that he took four Grade 1’s on the bounce, including the prestigious Arlington Million. Christophe Clement’s charge has been ready for some time to make that step up from top-class North American competition to true World Class Stakes racing and he’s a horse worth backing. I would not lay Gio Ponti and would back him at 5.0.  
My Top Selections for the 2010 Dubai World Cup
Gio Ponti
Vodka
Twice Over
We’ll be examining more contenders in our next article, but for now, we suggest you get in there and take advantage of the first 2010 Dubai World Cup antepost betting market at Betfair!