2010 DUBAI WORLD CUP LATEST ANTEPOST ODDS FROM BETFAIR

We’re just a few days away from the big showdown at Meydan Racecourse on Saturday March 27 with the running of the world’s richest horse race- the Dubai World Cup. We brought you some commentary on the top contenders yesterday and, after examining the latest odds on Betfair, you get a bit of an idea for how the punters expect this one to shape up.
Twice Over (Observatory) is the current betting favourite by a solid margin. You’ll find him backable at nearly 6.0 on the Betfair exchange. There is a fair amount of early volume so the prices are solid. Vision D’Etat (Chichicastenago) is deadlocked with American contender Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat) at a 6.8 price that will trend up to 7.0 in the early ante post going. Gitano Hernando (Hernando) is listed at 7.6 and this is a bit of a surprise for me to see him trading at such a low price. He took the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita last year as his only 1st class victory, and he started the season with a dominating performance in a listed race at Lingfield. I think that he is a contender, but the price is too short for me with the type of competition that he will have to dispose of. I would be interested at 12.0 but not 7.6.
Red Desire (Manhattan Café) is my early tip for this one and he trades at 9.6 on Betfair, not too far ahead of his price with the major bookmakers. I think this bodes well and is an indication that a lot of late money will likely move towards Red Desire. He dominated in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 and has won a pile of cash in his young 4 years. Mikio Matsunaga’s closer is suited for this type of a race and, if the early speed shows up as we expect, I think Red Desire could lie in wait and pounce inside the final furlong.
Gloria De Campeao (Impression) ran second to Red Desire in the aforementioned Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3. He’d taken the first leg of that contest and has showed plenty of acumen over the past few years. He ran second to Well Armed at last year’s Dubai World Cup, but that was over a whole different type of surface so the reference isn’t as strong as I’d like. He’s a contender, but needs things to fall into place for him and I don’t think he has the ability to dictate the race like a Red Desire or a Gio Ponti does. You’ll find him at 14.5.
Crowded House (Rainbow Quest) is just a step up from that at 15.5 and he’s been bested twice by two talented Godolphin runners, finishing second in two Group 2 encounters at Meydan so far. I think he’s not a bad bet at all considering the price and the fact that he’s got experience on the surface. Jamie Spencer knows how to handle him and I think he’s poised to capitalize on any mistakes. I’m not giving him two thumbs up, but I think he’s a definite possibility on the place markets, that’s for sure. He’s strong from the last 2 furlongs in and will likely be storming up alongside Red Desire towards the end of the race.
Richards Kid (Lemon Drop Kid) is by a popular American sire and represents one of the best 4 year-olds in Bob Baffert’s system. He’s fresh off a score in the 2010 San Antonio Handicap over the pro-ride at Santa Anita. He was top-weighted that day and still managed to win with relative ease and I think that bodes well. I like that he’s had a proper prep race and I give him respect for running sixth to Zenyatta in the Breeders Cup Classic. He was beaten by Gitano Hernando in the Goodwood, but he had a tough trip and was stuck behind a wall of horses before finishing up well down the stretch to finish 3rd. I think he’s a genuine contender and looks a snip at 16.0.
Allybar (King’s Best) is Saeed Bin Suroor’s best charge in this race and he’s running 114 at Meydan this season with his loss coming in the Al Maktoum Round 3 to Red Desire. Ahmed Ajtebi has this horse felt out and he got pipped by the late pace on that March 4th loss. I think he will be better prepared this time around and will look to kick on later this time. He’s trading at 20.0.
Mastery (Sulamani) is another Godolphin runner who is a bit more suited to longer distances than the one on offer here. He ran 3rd in the Breeders Cup marathon, but he does know how to get up there for the win under the right circumstances. He’s a bit of a long-shot at 25.0 and needs a lot of things to go his way in order to have a reasonable chance.
Lizard’s Desire (Lizard Island) had looked impressive in his two Meydan victories this season, but didn’t kick on properly against Red Desire in the Al Maktoum 3. He’s a lengthy 34.0 and looks to be outmatched here. Mr Brock (Fort Wood) was third that day and looks to be an improver. He’s had four goes over the Meydan surface running 1413. He’s trading around 36.0 and I actually think he’s one of the better long-shots available. Check him out if he’s your type of runner.
Furthest Land (Smart Strike) boasts an excellent pedigree, but just has trouble winning at the highest level. He’s a distant 44.0 and needs a big step up to take the victory here. I don’t think he’s got it in the tank against this type of crowd.
The mysterious Amor De Pobre (Stuka) ships in from Chile for this one and he’s very lighly-raced but has scored at Group 2 level. He’s a massive 90.0 right now and if you’re looking for a dark horse by every stretch of the imagination- this is your selection. Nobody really knows what’s going to happen here, but at that price he is worth a second look.
VERDICT: At this early point, my superfecta is leaning towards:
1. Red Desire
2. Richard’s Kid
3. Gio Ponti
4. Gloria De Campeao