2010 EPSOM DERBY ANTEPOST ODDS POINT TO JAN VERMEER

It was a truly remarkable weekend in the antepost market for the 2010 Epsom Derby which is set to run this Saturday. The movement in the odds has been most pronounced on the high-profile AP O’Brien charge St Nicholas Abbey (Montjeu) who drifted from a 6.0 price to be backed as high as 21.0 on Betfair. A whopping 15.0 listing was taken by a punter on St Nick’s to be placed.

Things have settle down and St Nicholas Abbey looks to be locked into the 10.0 range at the moment with question marks over his participation still lingering. A sizeable $1,200,000 or so has been matched on the Epsom Derby, so this is by no means an immature Betfair market. This is the real deal and St Nicholas Abbey can be had for a very tidy price if you’re willing to forgive the disappointing sixth place in the Group 1 2000 Guineas. I think he just came up a bit shorter than the placing indicates and you could certainly make arguments that he needed the race to get settled for this season.
The punters have been hammering one particular contender though and that’s the irrepressible Jan Vermeer (Montjeu). A half-brother and stablemate to St Nicholas Abbey, this classy three year-old bay is attracting plenty of attention based on a very simple victory in the Group 3 Airlie Stud Gallinule Stakes at the Curragh last week. He was carrying 7 pounds more than his counterparts and hardly broke a sweat. This has prompted the majority of the antepost action onto him and he’s trading at 3.15 or so amidst fairly heavy volume.
Workforce (King’s Best) has seen his price trending downwards on the Betfair antepost exchange for the Epsom Derby and he’s around 8.5 at the moment. Having only two lifetime starts to his credit, Sir Michael Stoute’s Juddmonte-bred closer looks to be a major spoiler in this race, which I expect to have a fair amount of pace up front. If Ryan Moore can get the right type of trip for this one then I think he’s got every chance and looks to be a solid place bet. Obviously I think he would pair well on the bottom of your forecast tickets if you feel particularly strong about Jan Vermeer or St Nicholas Abbey. Personally, I think he may be a bit outmatched on quality here, but his solid second in the Group 2 Dante Stakes does add some experience against higher-class colts. The more swashbuckling punters may enjoy playing him in an each-way forecast if you are confident that he may get up there and pip the winner by a nose. Stranger things have happened.
Undefeated Capo Blanco (Galileo) puts his record on the line having started the season with a serious bang by pulling out all the stops to beat Workforce in the aforementioned Dante Stakes. This is even more impressive considering he was laid off since last August. AP O’Brien will be looking to get his first-rate chestnut just behind the leading pack and then pull off another trademark move inside the final two furlongs. I think he’s a real spoiler here and more than justifies his whopping 17.0 price on Betfair. He’s been bet down to 5.5 in the TBP market and represents a decent bet there. I think he can be undone by traffic problems so if he gets a clean trip then he should be able to match up against the likes of Jan Vermeer on the way home.