2010 IRISH HENNESSY GOLD CUP AT LEOPARDSTOWN BETTING TIPS

We have a very solid field, despite a distinct lack of Denman, in the 3:50 at Leopardstown this Sunday. We’re still in ante-post mode at the moment, but the markets are certainly starting to heat up. We’ve got an eight-strong field of geldings and I firmly expect a good contest. You could go so far as to call this a 2009 Lexus Chase reunion- that’s undoubtedly the reference race here- which doesn’t bode well for the favourite.
Currently, the betting favourite is last year’s RSA Chase hero Cooldine- an eight year-old bay who is winless this year in his only start. He didn’t look to be running the best of races when he was pulled up last time out, in the Grade 1 Lexus Chase over the same surface. What a Friend scored that day in emphatic fashion and I don’t really see much of a reference for Cooldine here. I think he’s priced way too short at 6/4 with some bookmakers listing him at 2/1. He is 50/50 lifetime on the Chase circuit, however, and with the right trip he could take this one. But with so many other talented jumpers in the field, I think my money goes elsewhere.
Joncol also ran in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown and wound up finishing a solid 3rd as the 2nd favourite to Cooldine. He’s only finished outside the top 3 once in his 7-run chase career and I think that he has shown enough poise to handle what the surface might throw at him. He’s been out 3 times already this season, running 213 and he’s recorded some solid ratings in those outings. His victory came over a field of 5 at Punchestown in the Grade 1 John Durkan. This is solid Grade 1 winner who looks to be quite progressive. I think Paul Nolan’s charge is a contender for the cup and is a certainty for your place bets. You’ll find him at 5/2 or 11/4 with most major bookmakers.
10 year-old grey Money Trix was the 2nd place finisher to What a Friend on Lexus Chase day and he was an awesome 14/1 shot for whoever backed him on the each-way. He stayed on very well at the end and that bodes well for his chances this time out. He’s lightly-raced for a 10 year-old and is only pointed at races he has a genuine shot at. I’m not worried about falls with him and aside from that one time out at Newbury in 2008, he has finished in the top 2 every single time he’s run. Something has to give eventually, but I could see him getting the better of Cooldine again here if things pan out in his direction. If the early pace is slower, then I think that plays directly into Money Trix’s game plan. He’s dangerous and although I think 4/1 is a bit under-priced, he is a genuine contender.
Notre Pere was also out for the Lexus Chase and recorded a 4th place finish. He’s been running against some quality opposition for quite some time and put in a 5th placed finish to Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. He also had a fall in his opener this season at Drogheda in the Grade 1 JNwine Champion Chase. I’m not sure if he’s capable of beating some of the top contenders in this race, as he has shown more acumen facing off against Grade 2 opposition like Cornish Sett, Neptune Collonges and Hear The Echo as opposed to Gold Cup level runners like Cooldine and What a Friend.  He’s trading at around 6/1, but I think he needs too many mistakes to happen in order to capitalize.
Schindler’s Hunt is a 10 year-old chocolate-coloured gelding who is winless in just over a year. He was fifth in the Lexus Chase, sent off at 16/1, and has finished 2nd in the past year to Voy Por Ustedes and Notre Pere. He recorded a solid 3rd place to Imperial Commander in the Ryanair at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. I think he will challenge for 3rd spot. If he has gas in the tank on the stretch, I think he is dangerous but I don’t see a victory here for him. At 14/1-16/1 he will attract some volume.
In Compliance was also pulled up on Lexus Chase day and, prior to that, he finished 2nd to Joncol in a tight field of 5 in the John Durkan. He got the season off to a good start, after sitting out for all of 2008, with a Listed Race victory at Thurles in November. He has an impressive history of tackling quality opposition and was in great form back in 05/06. I think his best years may be behind him at this level, but has shown the form in the past. This is a horse that needs to roll back the years to have a genuine go at this one, although the 2nd place to Joncol does bode well for his ability to deal with younger and more ambitious geldings. 20/1 is about right.
Made in Taipan is one of the few here who wasn’t out in the Lexus Chase, instead opting for the Grade 1 Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase two days previous, where he finished 4th from 7. He put in a good shift before that in the Grade 2 Fortria Chase where he finished 2nd from 5 to the talented Big Zeb. He was leading in his season debut before a bad mistake and a UR ended his challenge at Naas in the Grade 3 Poplar Square Chase. He hasn’t won at Leopardstown since 2007 and will need a real performance to be a contender. He could surprise in 3rd place though and is a solid 25/1 shot with William Hill.
Finall, we have J’Y Vole- a French mare who is looking to get one over on the boys. She was 7th from 11 in the Lexus Chase and also finished behind Joncol and In Compliance in the John Durkan. You’d be tempted to say she’s a bit out of her depth here, but she beat Big Zeb over this surface back in 2008 and also beat the Sawyer at Punchestown last April in a tough field of 18. This is a mare who can hold her own, but will need to fight tooth and nail to finish top 3. She trades at high as 50/1.
My top 3 is as follows:
Joncol x Money Trix x Schindler’s Hunt.