2010 KENTUCKY DERBY BETTING GUIDE EARLY TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

We’re about five months out from the 2010 Kentucky Derby and we have the ante post market just starting to develop over at Betfair. Churchill Downs will be running a futures market, similar to an ante post market, for American customers in the coming weeks. Over in the UK, however, betting is already in full swing as punters begin backing and laying their favourites on the exchanges.
Currently, multiple Grade 1 winner Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike), a key part of Bob Baffert’s latest crop of emerging talent, is trading as the ante post favourite. He finished a very respectable second to Godolphin-owned Vale of York (Invincible Spirit) in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and that will be viewed as an anomaly by many with it being the only black mark on Lookin At Lucky’s prestigious, though lightly-raced, career. He’s taken victories in the Cashcall Futurity and that was won last year by Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker), also owned by Baffert and ridden by Garrett Gomez. Pioneer was my tip for last year’s derby and he finished second after the miracle in the mud by Mine That Bird (Birdstone) and Calvin Borel.
Many will question the fact that Lookin At Lucky’s success has all come on the California synthetics, but that didn’t stop Pioneer from nearly winning it on the dirt last year. Lookin at Lucky may be pointed at the Sham Stakes, won by my early Derby tip The Pamplemousse (Kafwain) last year, and from there would likely push for the Santa Anita Derby before heading for Churchill.
Lookin at Lucky is trading at 12.0 on the Betfair Exchange.
Just behind him is Bruce Levine’s lightly-raced three year old Buddy’s Saint (Saint Liam) who struck in the Grade 2 Nashua and Ramsen Stakes at Aqueduct. The Ramsen victory was particularly impressive as he romped to a 4 ¾ length win. In an interview with Bloodhorse Magazine, trainer Bruce Levine stated “Believe me, I wouldn’t trade places with anyone in America” referring to the 3 year-old bay colt. You’ll find him listed at 15.0 on the Betfair Exchange.
American Lion (Tiznow) is trading at a 20.0 margin and that’s based entirely off the back of the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue Stakes at Hollywood Park. He had top jock Julien Leparoux on board for that one and Winstar Farms boasts a great record. We’ll be looking for more quality performances during the build up to the derby preps and I will need at least a Grade 1 win to convince me that he has any form of chance. His only experience before that is two maiden special weight outings and he looks much better at 7f than 6f where he finished 2nd to Call Shot at Arlington Park. This is a horse getting plenty of attention based mostly on his prestigious pedigree as he is by Tiznow out of Storm Tide (Storm Cat).
Speaking of Tiznow, another one of his sons has jumped onto the Derby contention scene after a very flashy debut at Hollywood Park in the Grade 2 Stuka Stakes. For Tiz Chrome (Tiznow) this was a jump straight out of a Maiden Special Weight. His two big runs so far are only 6 ½ and 6 f, but he has been bred for route races and his pedigree reeks of 8f and 10f challengers. I think he could be very interesting and will likely flash a much lower price than his current listing of 25.0. His MSW victory came at Churchill and he followed that up with a win at Hollywood. From dirt to synthetic, this young horse has shown he has the chops.
Todd Pletcher looks to have a real contender with his brown colt Rule (Roman Ruler) who has been shredding it up down south at Delta Downs, capturing the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot Stakes and the Jean Lafitte Stakes. You’ll find Rule trading at around 34.0.
Vale of York (Invincible Spirit) is my early Derby tip and boasts a very solid 25.0 price. He is unraced since the Breeders Cup Juvenile and is likely to be considered the most cultured horse in the race. He’s been on the surfaces of York, Goodwood and Ascot in addition to San Siro, where he ran in the Group 1 Gran Criterium, finishing a solid 2nd to Hearts of Fire (Firebreak). He is a real grinder and showed his ability to close and hold in compact, hard-fought stretch drives. His finish at the Breeders Cup Juvenile was one of my highlights of the year, although I did enjoy the 35/1 payout I got on him. He’s a real contender here if he can get a solid result on dirt during the build-up. He was also first-time Lasix in the Juvy and that may have tilted things in his favour in a way that may not be replicable.
Afleet Express (Afleet Alex) is owned by James Jerkins and he really impressed on his maiden special weight debut over 6 furlongs at Aqueduct. He is on everybody’s list of contenders and could be one of those lightly-raced horses who makes a massive derby impression. You’ll find him around 20.0 right now, and that’s some real confidence signified in that price.
Aikenite (Yes It’s True) is already starting to underwhelm and he’s only just turned 3. Coming out of Todd Pletcher’s respected barn, he hasn’t won since his debut in a Maiden Special Weight during the fall/summer Saratoga meet. Since then, he’s placed 3/12 to the talented Dublin at Saratoga and run 2nd to Noble’s Promise (Cuvee) at Keeneland. He then finished a disappointing 5th to Vale of York in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. This is a horse that looks to be at his best on dirt and will likely enjoy the switch off the poly and pro-ride surfaces he has been on lately. You’ll find him at 34.0 but looks a better tip for a TBP than anything else.
Other notable selections include D’Funnybone (D’Wildcat), another high-profile 2 year-old that had a real setback in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, finishing dead-last after scoring back-to-back Grade 2 wins at Belmont and Saratoga to some talented runners. I think Richard Dutrow’s chocolate-coloured colt is definitely not a synthetic horse at all and will do well on the Churchill surface. He’s had Edgar Prado on top for quite some time and will likely team up again should he be pointed at the Derby. I think he could be an interesting outside selection and, despite that loss, he has a better record than the majority of the horses in the race.
She Be Wild (Offlee Wild) was one of the feathers in my cap during day 1 of the Breeders. Anybody who reads my work regularly will know that I teamed her up with Tapitsfly (Tapit) in a high-paying double selection. She is an interesting sort here, out of Wayne Catalano’s system, and looks a real threat in the race. She will likely be overlaid based on the enthusiasm for high-performing filly’s in the continental US. She’s already had a sharp price drop and now trades at a very competitive 20.0. I think she’s a real contender with a Grade 3 and a Grade 1 under the belt already. She also finished 2nd in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland and that could be a reference race here. She goes into the Kentucky Derby as one of the top 3 most distinguished horses in the race and could pull off a dramatic victory. Mark my words- this is a very serious contender and her price will not lengthen unless it looks like she’ll be pointed towards an easy victory in the Kentucky Oaks instead.
Keep your eyes on Grade 1 winner Dublin (Afleet Alex) at 40.0 and San Rafael Stakes winner Conveyance (Indian Charlie) at 25.0.
My last tip is the outside bet on Pounced (Rahy), who won the Grade 2 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf after shipping over from Europe where he ran 2nd at Longchamp in the Group 2 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere after breaking his maiden in a tough one at Newbury. He had Frankie Dettori aboard for the Breeders and though he favours the turf, he will drop very sharply in price with a victory on dirt during the Derby preps. You’ll find Pounced at 34.0.
EARLY TIPS
We’re a long way off from the 2010 Kentucky Derby and virtually anything can happen between now and then. My early top 4 includes:
Lookin at Lucky
Vale of York
She Be Wild
Tiz Chrome
I also think that D’Funnybone, Aikenite and Pounced are solid selections for a show bet. If I was forced to pick a straight tricast today, my selection would be She Be Wild x Vale of York x Lookin at Lucky.
We’ll be chronicling the ante post and race-day odds for the major Derby prep races and also keeping you posted on the latest market movers for the 2010 Kentucky Derby at Betfair!