2010 KENTUCKY DERBY FULL PREVIEW AND LATEST ODDS PART ONE

We had two big shocks in the latest Derby preps over the weekend with massive longshot Stately Victor (Ghostzapper) scoring an upset in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland while Line of David (Lion Heart) went wire-to-wire in the Arkansas Derby- both previously little-known contenders have earned themselves a spot in the starting gate in the 2010 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs which is set to run on May 1st.

The UK bookmakers have been following the Kentucky Derby quite closely all year and the latest results have prompted a shuffle in the odds that have seen the two newest contenders priced at 26.0 to win the Kentucky Derby.
In my opinion, and the opinion of virtually anybody with a betting line on this year’s Run for the Roses, it looks like it’s all about Todd Pletcher’s colt Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway) who has absolutely romped all year with massive scores in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He looks a step above all his competition so far this year and, without wanting to get too far ahead of myself here, it bodes well for a shot at the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes if he can get past the Derby. He seems to have plenty of distance left in him, so if he navigates the 20-strong field at Churchill we may have a very interesting few weeks.
While Eskendereya is the most accomplished contender on the Derby Trail, this weekend’s results reminded us that we could always see a repeat of last year’s performance when Mine That Bird (Birdstone) swept to a 50/1 victory with a legendary late dash. The early betting shows Eskendereya trading as the clear 3.0 favourite to win the 2010 Kentucky Derby.
Bob Baffert’s Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) was a beaten favourite in the Sanita Anita Derby after enduring a rough trip and some poor jockeying decisions. It hasn’t put punters off of him too much and he continues to hold firm at a 7.0 price. He has transferred well to the dirt after running most of his career on synthetics so I think he cannot be discounted.
Sidney’s Candy (Candy Ride) solidified his credentials for the 2010 Kentucky Derby by topping well-favoured Lookin At Lucky in the aforementioned Santa Anita Derby. The undefeated chestnut has shown plenty of form with Joe Talamo onboard and I think the media may take to this quality three year-old as he is owned by American diet maven Jenny Craig and named for her late husband. You’ll find Sidney’s Candy at Ladbrokes trading at 9.0.
Ice Box (Pulpit) has been one of the biggest surprises on the Derby circuit this year with a massive 20/1 win in the 2010 Florida Derby. Nick Zito’s three year-old finished a respectable fifth to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth and then produced that first rate performance to win his way to the 2010 Derby. His running style makes him a serious contender, and will likely see plenty of favour in the exotic markets. Ice Box is priced a bit short in my opinion, but must be seeing volume thanks to his 13.0 price tag.
Endorsement (Distorted Humor) has only big start to his credit- a winning effort in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby. He and regular jockey Robbie Albarado will be lining up for the 2010 Kentucky Derby and they are also priced at 13.0. I think those odds will rise as we get closer to post time so I would hold off on any fixed bets on Endorsement. Keep an eye on the workouts.
Awesome Act (Awesome Again) took the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct when sent off as the favourite under preferred jock Julien Leparoux. He followed that up last week with a solid third place performance to the first-rate Eskendereya. He had trouble closing that day and couldn’t match Eskendereya’s pace at all. I am not sure whether he has the gas in him to be a contender over the longer distance for the Kentucky Derby. He’ll need to be a big improver despite some solid figures in the build up. In a Derby where late pace looks like it could be the kingmaker, he just doesn’t tick all the right boxes. Underpriced at 17.0.
Super Saver (Maria’s Mon) is another member of the Todd Squad and has been a there-or-thereabouts type since his debut at Belmont last fall. He announced his Derby credentials in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill when he had Calvin Borel aboard for the trip. He finished 3rd, a beaten favourite, to Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby. He put in a decent shift on Saturday in the Arkansas Derby, closing late on the ultimate winner Line of David. Definitely worth a look and he trades at a quality price of 21.0.
Stay tuned to Betting Choice for the second half of our 2010 Kentucky Derby preview where we’ll be focusing on the longer odds selections!