2010 KENTUCKY DERBY LATEST ODDS PREDICTIONS AND EXCLUSIVE TIPS

Here we go, it's time for the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby- America's most famous race. If you thought last year's edition at the outset, you certainly got a pretty rude awakening with the last minute scratching of I Want Revenge (Stephen Got Even) and the 50/1 miracle called Mine That Bird (Birdstone). This years edition has all sorts of variables in it and I'm sure that there will be drama all the way up to the photo in the winner's circle.  

Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) is the justifiable morning-line favorite at a 3/1 price and he'll be teaming up with his usual rider Garret Gomez. Trainer Bob Baffert has been lamenting the rough draw with the one stall as it definitely gives Lookin At Lucky very little margin for error. The left coast-based bay endured a torrid trip in the Santa Anita Derby and still got up to finish 3rd. If things go his way, then he's a great shout and he's also got wins over the dirt surface which is more than most California runners can claim. The multiple Grade 1 winner has put in some great works since shipping to Churchill and looks like he should be able to handle the sloppy track. You can't really argue that he's a value play so any folks who think Lookin At Lucky is going to take this one would do well to play him at the top-end of their exotics and I also consider him a very strong shout on your exactor-savers. He's at 3/1 but I reckon the price may rise. 
Sidney's Candy (Candy Ride) is undefeated since entering the stakes circuit and posted a career-best 100 Beyer Speed figure when conquering the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby by four and a half lengths. John Saddler trains this horse for diet maven Jenny Craig and he's named after her late husband. Unproven over dirt and will need to run a near-perfect race coming out of the 20 stall on the far right side. That's a lot of slop to slog through that early in the race and I'm just wondering whether he'll have gas in the tank if he's stuck out wide or behind a wall of horses. Shaky for me at a 5/1 price. 
After watching a good portion of the 2010 Kentucky Oaks day, I realized that things may just be playing into favour for the upstart Nick Zito charge Ice Box (Puplit). This is one of the more mysterious horses in the race and basically fought his way into the equation after a rather shaky start on the maiden special weight circuit- having to drop to 38k before scoring and then following up with an allowance victory. Both of those were by slim margins but then he scored a mediocre 86 Beyer finishing fifth in the Fountain of Youth to Eskendereya. He really got a chance to show his stuff when mugging Pleasant Prince on the line in the 2010 Florida Derby- he showed a turn of foot similar to Mine That Bird last year and I fancy him to be able to tackle the slop effectively. There is a lot of early speed in this race and I think that the front-runners will be handicapped by having to push through the heavy stuff. Ice Box is a sure-footed dirt runner and, if he gets a good run down the long stretch at Churchill, could very well end the day covered in Roses. Ice Box is my selection to win the 2010 Kentucky Derby.    
With a 20-strong field, 15/1 Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil) is rapidly-emerging as a cheeky outside bet for a lot of Derby bettors. He's got great references- finishing a very solid second twice to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial. He recorded 92 and 93 Beyer's for those runs and will need a triple-digit performance here. One ace he does have up his sleeve for trainer Nick Zito is his small physical presence and ability to navigate through large groups with ease. While the expected muddy logjam coming around the turn may derail the bids for several front-runners, this stalker will be looking to stay a bit off a fast early pace (which may not emerge now with the mud) and then make a push no matter what position he's in. If this horse gets down to the rail, he's extremely dangerous and will be factoring into my exotic tickets. 
Devil May Care (Malibu Moon) lines up as the sole filly in the 2010 Kentucky Derby and this multiple graded stakes winner also gets to carry 5 pounds less than her rivals. She is blinkers on here and that's a strong reference from the in-form Pletcher barn. Installed as the co-third favourite at a 10/1 price she will be able to hold her own the whole way down but some suspect she was pointed here to avoid a loss in the oaks to Blind Luck. She hasn't beaten males before so I can understand those who are skipping her. I expect her price to be artificially inflated by gender-based bets. Worth a look though and notably put up a 100 Beyer in her last outing in the Bonnie Miss. 
At this point I'm looking at Ice Box for the win with Lookin At Lucky and Jackson Bend on the bottom end of my exactor tickets. Those pushing for the superfecta will do well to go with those three and perhaps Stately Victor (Ghost Zapper) who will look to come on late at 30/1. 
We'll be bringing you more coverage of the 2010 Kentucky Derby as we get closer to the start of the 136th Run For The Roses.