2010 KENTUCKY DERBY LATEST UK ODDS AND BETTING TIPS

We are just over a week away from the start of the 2010 Triple Crown season in America and this year’s crop of leading 3 year-olds have set up a very interesting battle which pits a clear front-runner against a talented field of mid-tier horses with a handful of exciting-looking outsiders available. This is one of the biggest fields in American racing and it represents a unique challenge to both horse and rider.
I was extremely close last year with Pioneerof The Nile (Empire Maker), beaten by a miracle performance from Calvin Borel and Mine That Bird. The fates conspired and the planets aligned, but I don’t see another dramatic 50/1 upset.

Todd Pletcher’s Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway) is the big story coming into this race- with monster peformances in the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial. If you ignore the controversy around his owner Zayat Stables, you can see things shaping up for the talented chestnut colt. I think he’s definitely the one to beat and, based on performance, there is really only one or two horses that may be able to beat him. The only thing that can stop Eskendereya is either a badly-run race or some type of jockey error. He has won by such big margins as a three year-old that you just can’t argue with his form.
One of the reasons I’m backing Eskendereya despite the big lack of value is the fact that I think he genuinely has a chance to go on and win the Triple Crown. In his performances at 1m1f you always see him pulling away and adding distance as he gets closer to the finish line. This is a horse that can handle the Derby distance and the Preakness and Belmont distances as well. It’s going to take a lot to beat him and, if he gets the right trip, is nearly unbeatable. Ladbrokes has Eskendereya at 3.0 while the open exchange on Betfair has him priced at 3.35 at the moment.
Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) has been Derby-pointed from early in his two-year old career. Bob Baffert’s talented bay endured a nightmare trip to finish 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby but his late-running style managed to save embarrassment with a 3rd place finish. Garret Gomez will be looking to make up for that poor performance and a Derby win is a pretty good way to do it. It will be interesting to see how he matches up against Eskendereya, but I think the right-coast runner gets the edge. The bookies seem to agree with Ladbrokes posting Lucky at 7.0 and Betfair placing him at 6.2.
Undefeated Sidney’s Candy (Candy Ride) is owned by and bred by American diet maven Jenny Craig and the partnership with top jock Joe Talamo has born fruit on all three runs at Santa Anita. My big issue here is the synthetic surface- Candy doesn’t have experience on dirt. That’s a question mark and likely explains the 9.0 price on Ladbrokes and the 10.0 listing on Betfair. He looks to be progressing nicely and is a solid bet at the price, I think he’s either going to finish on the bottom end of your exotics or come in something like 14th. This is a shakier bet and I prefer the two favourites over this one.
Here’s an interesting one for you- Florida Derby winner Ice Box (Pulpit) trades at 13.0 on Ladbrokes, but is at double that price on Betfair carrying a 26.0 listing. He finished a respectable fifth to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth when sent off at 46/1. He then bounced back to dominate the Florida Derby against a talented field of 11 that included Rule (Roman Ruler), Lentenor (Dynaformer) and Radiohead (Johannesburg). 2009 Derby-placed Musket Man (Yonaguska) took the Florida Derby last time out and I think that’s a great reference. Ice Box is one of the more mysterious horses in the Derby and could be in line to pull off a surprise. If you can get a good price on him, he’s a solid bet to turn good in the Derby.
Endorsement (Distorted Humour) took the Sunland Derby, which has become a more important Derby prep than it was considered in previous years. He’s at 13.0 on Ladbrokes with a 21.0 price on Betfair. He looks talented and has probably got another ace or two up his sleeve than we might think. He’s an interesting bet, and wouldn’t be out of place on the bottom end of your triactor tickets.
Awesome Act (Awesome Again) finished 3rd to Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial, which is actually a solid reference as it was a very tough battle for the place and show positions. He is in the Derby thanks to a win in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct when he poured on the juice 1f out and ran off well. He raced in the UK for a while and should see some action based on the British connection. Julien Leparoux seems to have his number and is an interesting contender, but needs an awful lot to win. 17.0 in the fixed market at Ladbrokes and an identical price at Betfair.
Another one of Todd Pletcher’s talented Derby contenders is the quality bay Super Saver (Maria’s Mon). He was beaten by longshot Line of David (Lion Heart) in the Arkansas Derby, but acquitted himself pretty well in all of his other races. One big advantage he has over a lot of the other contenders here is a win on the Churchill surface in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He’s 21.0 on Ladbrokes and trades at 27.0 with Betfair. 
LATEST ODDS FOR THE 2010 KENTUCKY DERBY FROM LADBROKES
Eskendereya - 3.0Lookin at Lucky - 7.0Sidneys Candy - 9.0Ice Box - 13.0Endorsement - 13.0Awesome Act - 17.0Super Saver - 21.0Mission Impazible - 21.0American Lion - 26.0Dublin - 26.0Stately Victor - 26.0Line of David - 26.0Rule - 34.0Noble's Promise - 34.0Jackson Bend - 34.0Conveyance - 34.0Discreetly Mine - 34.0Deans Kitten - 34.0
LATEST ODDS FOR THE 2010 KENTUCKY DERBY FROM BETFAIR
Eskendereya - 3.35Lookin at Lucky - 6.2Sidneys Candy - 10.0Ice Box - 26.0Endorsement - 21.0Awesome Act - 17.0Super Saver - 27.0Mission Impazible - 38.0American Lion - 27.0Dublin - 25.0Stately Victor - 30.0Line of David - 34.0Rule - 38.0Noble's Promise - 36.0Jackson Bend - 34.0Conveyance - 44.0Discreetly Mine - 70.0Deans Kitten - 60.0