2010 KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS SHOW VALE OF YORK NOW CLEAR FAVOURITE

There’s been plenty of moving and shaking in the past few weeks as the 2010 Kentucky Derby Trail looks to be in full-swing. We’ve got Derby preps unfolding all over the place for the next few months and we’ve already seen several notable contenders either bumped up or bumped off the path to the big dance at Churchill Downs.
The biggest story for my eyes, after examining the ante post exchange available on Betfair, is that Vale Of York (Invincible Spirit) has dropped substantially in price and is now priced at a slim 4.0- this is an extremely significant development as he was priced at 25.0 in my Derby preview. This is a massive drop in price, coming on the heels of a confirmation that Godolphin will point the Saeed Bun Suroor-trained bay to the May 1st showdown.
You’ll remember Vale of York as much as I do if you backed him during the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. He was first time lasix that day, my only real reason for backing him, and he rewarded as my biggest shot of the two day festival. I do think he may rise in price and I don’t advise backing him now as that is not a proper exchange price. What I think it does indicate, however, is that we all know where he’s being pointed. Sheikh Al Maktoum’s crew hasn’t scored a Derby victory yet and this  3 year-old colt looks like the best chance the Blue Team has had in years.
Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike) continues to hold steady at a price of 10.5 and looks to be a very impressive contender. I like his style and he knows how to get things done- scoring an impressive victory in the 2009 Cashcall Futurity- an important west coast derby prep- with Garret Gomez aboard for the ride as usual. This was a race won by Pioneerof The Nile last year and we all know what it took to beat him. Bob Baffert’s charge looks likely to give Vale of York the most hassle.
Unfortunately, it looks like Winslow Homer’s (Unbridled’s Song) Derby trail is over just as quickly as it began. He picked up an injury when he struck in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream. I’m not really that surprised as Unbridled’s progeny have struggled with injury issues.
One contender that is starting to emerge is the highly-rated Connemara (Giants Causeway). Finishing a close 2nd in the California Derby on the Tapeta at Golden Gate fields, the chocolate colt looks to be a key member of Todd Pletcher’s spring line-up.
Lentenor (Dynaformer) has now received a price on the exchanges and trades at an enticing 25.0. He comes in with one of the biggest groups of fans, being a full-brother to 2006 Derby winner Barbaro. He just scored his first victory with John Velazquez aboard for the trip, sent off as the 11/10 favourite against a solid field over 1 and 1/16 on the turf. He showed explosive pace on the final turn and bested the field by nearly 4 lengths. I expect his price to continue dropping and plummet with an official confirmation that he is Derby-bound.
She Be Wild (Offlee Wild), one of my early outside tips, suffered her first loss to Bickersons (Silver Deputy) in the Grade 2 Forward Gal Stakes at Gulfstream. This was her first step onto the dirt after switching over from polytrack and the fifth place finish may have just been her finding her footing. She’s trading at 26.0 on Betfair and may be heading for the Oaks as opposed to the Derby.
Buddy’s Saint (Saint Liam) remains undefeated and continues to trade at a competitive 15.0. Tiz Chrome (Tiznow) also holds steady at 20.0.