2010 MELBOURNE CUP TIPS AND BETTING PREDICTIONS
We've got an absolutely massive field set to contest the biggest race in Australia and you can bank on another classic race that pays big dividends year over year. This is a tricky race for a lot of handicappers and thoroughbred racing observers as there aren't too many top-class 2 mile races going on these days.
Mark Kavanagh's local hero Shocking (Street Cry) captured the race last year after getting to the lead about 150m out and staying on extremely well ahead of Godlphin's Crime Scene (Royal Appalause). It probably goes without saying that Shocking is well-fancied to repeat as Melbourne Cup winner and you can back him at a 10/1 price tag at the moment. I think his running style and proven ability over the course and distance make him a very solid bet at 10/1 at the moment with Ladbrokes. He is priced as low as 7/1 on Skybet and if you're looking to back him I really suggest you do it now as he will be bet down severely on the day and could go off around 5/1.
There are some wildly-varying odds on the other contenders and there are some solid selections out there. Multiple Group 3 winner Profound Beauty (Danehill) leads the pack of spoilers and this bay mare brings quality form to the table. She has run 1211 so far this year and finished a respectable fifth when attempting the Melbourne Cup in 2008. She looks to have improved since then and I see her being a popular selection with the female fans on race day. She's priced anywhere from 16/1 to 12/1.
Faint Perfume (Shamardal) is another female contender and she's running at 100% in her three attempts over the Flemington surface, albeit they were all at shorter distances. She scored in the Group 1 Crown Oaks going 1m5f or so last year and it will be interesting to see if she can handle the full 2 mile distance against proven contenders. Priced as high as 20/1 with various bookmakers.
Drunken Sailor (Tendulkar) is one that I expect to see a fair amount of betting volume for the 2010 Melbourne Cup and he will need to progress big time if he wants to score at Group 1 level. He had a great session in Dubai this year, winning two of three races and then has been there-or-thereabouts in England, taking a listed race at the end of August. I can see why his connections would fancy him though as he tends to excel at longer distances and the 2 miles here may suit him. He will see plenty of intoxicated bets on race day so get your bets in now.
Finally, Alcopop (Jeune) was sent off as the 15/4 favourite last year and the six year-old gelding looks to be back for another crack this year. It's been a few disappointing results for this one so far this season but he never really got going in any of those races and just didn't look himself. A layoff will probably do him worlds of good and he could be an interesting surprise should he line up for this one. You'll find him trading at 33/1.
I think that this year's Melbourne Cup could certainly boil down to a duel between Shocking and Profound Beauty. An each-way forecast would reward a very tidy sum.