2010 PREAKNESS STAKES AT PIMLICO LATEST ODDS AND TIPS

After Super Saver (Maria’s Mon) pulled through in the 2010 Kentucky Derby, all eyes have been on Todd Pletcher’s first rate colt and he has been tagged with a 5/2 morning line price for this Saturday’s Preakness Stakes- the second leg of the American Triple Crown of Racing.

Top jock Calvin Borel was aboard for the trip at Churchill Downs and, after the race, was insistent than this horse has the potential chops to be the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed took it in 1978. While I am probably not the only one who thinks that Super Saver is a bit of an underwhelming choice for a potential spot in racing history, a lot of the story comes down to how Borel pilots the bay.
One of the reasons why I am hesitant to back Super Saver here is that he was really the only proven mudder in the entire Kentucky Derby field. His record prior to the race really wasn’t particularly impressive with a single graded score coming in 2009 where he took the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. I think Super Saver is vulnerable to late pace, Ice Box (Pulpit) would have nabbed him on the line without that nightmare trip, but luckily for Pletcher’s colt there isn’t a huge amount of late pace here and if Borel can keep him tight to the rail and out of trouble then he should win this race. “Should” being the operative word.  
In my opinion, Bob Baffert’s Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) deserves a lot of respect here and his luck is bound to change after having two extremely forgettable trips in his last two races. He’s actually drawn a decent post position for once and, coming out of the gate right next to Super Saver, I think he’s a force to be reckoned with. The only issue over top of him is the switch from Garret Gomez to Martin Garcia in the pilot’s seat. Lookin At Lucky was able to score a 94 Beyer finishing sixth in the Derby and that bodes pretty well that he did the best he could with a fairly rotten set of circumstances. You’ll find Lookin At Lucky trading at a 3/1 price in the morning line.
One of the big surprises in the Derby, for me at least, was the disappointing performance of little Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil). This quality chestnut colt put in two great shifts in the Derby preps finishing second behind Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway) in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. He had major traffic problems and Mike Smith usually can navigate those pretty well. I thought he may be able to take the step up in distance on Derby day and he was well off the leaders. While the Preakness isn’t a huge jump up in distance it may prove to be too much for the big-hearted colt who will really need to dig deep to find what it takes to win. Look for him at around 12/1.
Paddy O’Prado (El Prado) notched a 100 Beyer figure when he finished a surprising third in the Kentucky Derby. He’s back for another crack with Kent Desormeaux on top and this time he’s garnering a lot more respect at a 9/2 price. He’s hasn’t worked out since the Derby and will be going in cold a bit after shipping to Pimlico. I don’t think he’s got what it takes to win here, but could be part of the equation.
Aikenite (Yes It’s True) just missed out on the Kentucky Derby thanks a lack of graded earnings. He’s not a bad sort and is trading at 20/1, but looks to be a bit out of his depth. I think that he could definitely challenge for the bottom spots on your exotic tickets but shouldn’t be much of a threat to the favourites- especially coming out of the 1 stall.,
Yawanna Twist (Yonaguska) is a surprisingly interesting type of runner and he’s only had four races lifetime, which is surprising for a colt running at this level. He has placed in both of his graded outings- the Grade 3 Illinois Derby and the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes. Judging from his last outing, he may attempt to head towards the leading pack and one thing that I like about him is that he’s a half-brother to Musket Man, who was 3rd here last year. I think he’s the major wildcard in the pack and could be a force to be reckoned with if he gets the right trip. He’s an enticing 30/1.