ATP INDIAN WELLS R16 TIPS: DJOKOVIC TAKES ON LJUBICIC

Serbian starlet Novak Djokovic is gearing up for a tricky fourth round encounter against Croatian Ivan Ljubicic early this afternoon at the BNP Paribas Open. Djokovic, the short-odds-on-favourite to win outright according to rank and seed (some would have Andy Murray as such (shocker!)), takes a 5-1 lifetime head-to-head edge over Ljubicic and the bookies blessings. William Hill is trading Djokovic firm favourite odds of 1/8 to win while Ljubicic comes in at 11/4.
It should not come as a surprise that Djokovic is the favourite. Nor is it surprising that the betting trend is falling in line with this expectation. But is the match really going to be as straightforward as the market implies. If there were a lesson to be learned in Federer's loss to Baghdatis yesterday, it is that nothing is certain. Keep in mind, Federer only lost the match by a handful of points really 7-5, 6-7, 6-7. A few better on court decisions by Federer, a little less aggressive and panicky play, and we may well have seen a different outcome. It so happens Baghdatis won the battle of wills last night, and in so doing, snapped a six-match losing streak against Federer.
Indian Wells has delivered several surprises already with the exit of Marin Cilic, Gael Monfls, Fernando Verdasco, and most recently Roger Federer (and this is just the men's side of the proceedings. The women haven't escaped the carnage as Kim Clijsters, Justine Henin, Maria Sharapova and Svetlana Kuznetsova, just to name a few, were defeated). With upsets rampant, might not they continue? It stands to reason, yes.
Logically, this implies Ljubicic is not entirely out of the mathematical equation, even if the market shortchanges him a bit. Betting on the underdogs has proven to be more lucrative so far at Indian Wells, what is betting on another.
To do so, is easier said than done. Several factors stand against Ljubicic and they should not be taken lightly. Ljubicic is on a negative trend against Djokovic (5 in a row), questionable on form (he was 5-4 ahead of Indian Wells), and no spring chicken at 31-years of age. Having said that, I believe Ljubicic will be relevant in this match. After all, didn't he beat Monfils and Verdasco last year and nigh-upset Nadal, save for suffering an injury mid-match and withdrawing.
All things considered, there is value to be had whichever way you decide to slice this match. Ljubicic can make this a thrilling three-setter so in my opinion the first set is up for grabs. Ljubicic to take it is a reasonable bet. Then it depends where your loyalties are: if you are a Djokovic fan, you might fancy the 2-1 win in his favour; and vice versa, Ljubicic fans might fancy the 2-1 win in his favor.