Australia v New Zealand - 13 August 2005

Australia and New Zealand are both seven points behind South Africa in the Tri-Nations table and so will be keen to notch their first victory of the campaign when they face-off in Sydney on Saturday.This gap is distorted however, and there is no need to panic for either camp. With all of their home matches to come, there is plenty of time to get back into the tournament, and the losing bonus points claimed in their games with the Springboks could be extremely valuable in the final shake-up. The final score in both matches was 16-22.Home victories are a must if a team is to take this title, and so this week the pressure is on Australia to make the Telstra Stadium advantage count. Certain sections of the media have also publicly denounced the long-term vision, and suggested that a loss on Saturday should lead to the sacking of coach Eddie Jones, and skipper George Gregan, only adding to the intensity, as is a Bledsoe Cup match needed any help in that department. Jones has been forced into several changes for this fixture however.Two of the back three, Drew Mitchell and Mark Gerrard are making their starting debuts and so the spot light will obviously be thrust in their direction. They take the places of league converts Wendell Sailor and Matt Rogers and has meant that a full scale back line shift has had to be put into operation. A season ending injury to Stephen Larkham also means that the fly half jersey was up for grabs, and the prodigious Matt Giteau has been given the go ahead, leaving Elton Flatley as an experienced option on the bench.Morgan Turunui moves to inside centre, with Clyde Rathbone returning to take his place at outside. His availability is a boost, and the news regarding the pack is also positive. Al Baxter steps in at tighthead prop, with Matt Dunning amongst the replacements, and David Lyons also starts at number eight after missing out in South Africa with an ailment.The last five times that Australia have hosted their trans-Tasman rivals, they have played in Sydney, and four of these have gone the way of the Wallabies. To this point of the season, Australia have had their attention focussed on three games with the Springboks. On balance the Boks were the better side, but it is worth remembering that the first of these occurred at this ground, and the Aussies won easily, 30-12. Home advantage is absolutely vital in international rugby, and in a tournament that is inherently super competitive, we feel any home side is worth backing at odds against. Therefore, the 6/4 available stands out to us.New Zealand were very proud of themselves for dismantling the British lions during June and July, but as we pointed out, those results should only be dimly regarded in relation to proper top class test rugby. Last weeks game against the Boks proved this to be true, the slickness that only comes through teams working together over sustained periods undoing the Kiwi's. Daniel Carter suddenly fell from his mercurial mantle and was made to look ordinary, something that will only serve to hearten and motivate the aussie back row as they power through.At time of writing it is not clear whether skipper Tana Umaga will be able to take part; he has been bracketed with Conrad Smith. Definitely missing is Byron Kelleher though who was felled by a forearm swipe from Victor Matfield last week. Piri Weepu fended off the challenge from Kevin Senio and will make his first Tri-Nations start at scrum half, playing against the man rapidly closing in on Jason Leonard's all time test cap record, George Gregan. Joe Rokocoko will play in place of Leon McDonald.A 10-hour flight following the bruising encounter though is another factor to consider. Australia have been based amongst friends for two weeks now, and have and an extra seven days to rest. New Zealand are sure to be weary.Of the last 20 Tri-Nations matches, just two have not been won by the team playing at home. We have not seen enough quality from New Zealand to suggest they can go against this trend, and at 6/4 we are happy to back Australia.