Australian Open Betting Preview

One man, Roger Federer, dominated Mens tennis in 2004 and as we approach the first Grand Slam of 2005, the Australian Open, there seems little reason to doubt that this Swiss superiority will once again be the pattern of the campaign.He took ten titles in the calendar year, including three Grand Slams and the Masters Cup. Nobody has opened up such a gulf at the top of the game since Pete Sampras was in his pomp, and the general consensus is that Federer has the potential to blow the Sampras records out of the water.For several years there was a temperament issue, but since first hitting the heights with victory at Wimbledon in 2003, his momentum has not ceased. Three of the subsequent five Majors have gone his way and he began this season by taking another title in Qatar, just a fortnight prior to the Australian Open getting started.There is no weakness in his game, and no player that he seems to have any particular problem beating. 7/10 is a very short price in an event consisting of 128 entries, but such is his current status that we find it hard to disagree with. At time of writing he is progressing nicely at the Kooyong Invitational, having beaten Gaston Gaudio, the French Open Champion in his first match and then Tim Henman in the semi final. However, any victor has to win seven matches in order to take a Grand Slam title, and this price is simply too short to get excited about.We had mentally selected an each way bet in the form of Joachim Johansson, but an injury concern is probably enough to make a wide berth advisable. The big serving Swede is one to look out for this year however. He climbed from 113th to 11th in the world during 2004, and won in Adelaide in the build up to the first Grand Slam of the year. 33/1 is available. Lleyton Hewitt has the burden of home expectation on his shoulders, and it is not a burden he carries easily. Never before has he made it past the fourth round in this tournament and this will be his ninth attempt.He has also been sounding off about the courts being too slow for his game, and this does not fill the potential punter with confidence. Incidentally, most of the other players have come out in support of the re-laid Rebound Ace surfaces. Federer also has more of a hold over him than anyone else having defeated him in three of the Grand Slams last year. 8/1 does not appeal as an each way prospect.He is seeded third, which means he is projected to meet the second seed in the semi final and that man in Andy Roddick. Roddick has parted company with his coach Brad Gilbert since the US Open, and we are yet to see the impact this may have had on the American's game. He has only been seen on court once since losing both singles matches at the Davis Cup Final, and looks too short at 9/1.Tim Henman looks to be generously priced at 40/1, but there remain obvious question marks over his ability to take the extra step and win a Grand Slam. 2003 saw his best efforts yet, with two semi finals and a quarterfinal. Logic dictates that if the semi final can be reached on the slow clay of Paris, then the quicker hard courts of Melbourne should prove much more to the Britons liking.He plays with less pressure these days, and handles his position of being one of the most senior and respected members of the tour with greater poise than he showed during his mid twenties. Reportedly his sometimes stiff back is in good shape, and a 6-1, 7-5 win over his occasional nemesis David Nalbandian at the Kooyong Classic was an encouraging opening to the year.Of the four Grand Slams this is the only one where the quarterfinals haven't been reached, but the confidence taken from his displays last year shows that he can overcome the odds when under pressure. This was always the doubt with Henman, and in three of his last four visits to Melbourne the fourth round has been reached. Last year he lost a five set thriller to Guillermo Canas, going down 7-9 in the final set.40/1 looks like an inflated price, and is worth taking each way. As seventh seed he is in the opposite half of the draw to Federer too, and this will enhance his prospects further, especially as he lost to the Swiss defending champion 6-4, 6-2 in the Kooyong semi final last week. This price is certainly good enough for an each way punt which will pay at 1/2 odds if the final is reached. The 31 year old is in the same quarter of the draw as Andy Roddick, but has beaten the number two seed more times than he has lost to him. The news that he has retired from Davis Cup in order to concentrate on the Grand Slams is also encouraging with regard to this tournament.Marat Safin has a special relationship with the Championship, and last year came from nowhere after some dire form to make it to the final. It was actually the second time in four years that the Russian has finished as runner up, and winning the Masters event in Paris towards the end of last year ensured the season ended on a good note. However, there is no form to speak of this term and we are not lured in by the 14/1 available about the 2000 US Open champion.The other man worthy of a mention is Andre Agassi. There are worries regarding the four time winner's fitness however, and he was forced to withdraw from his semi final at the Kooyong Invitational. A practice match has been arranged against Tim Henman on Saturday, but at 35 years of age any injury niggles take longer to shake off, and the 22/1 should be avoided.The Ladies draw at the Australian Open has far more of an open look to it than the Mens. Unlike the men's sport, there has been no single dominant player over the past twelve months. We have been through two mini eras since the Millennium. The first actually transcended the two centuries, with the Williams sisters. The next never quite reached the same scale, but the Belgian duo Kim Clijsters and Justin Henin-Hardenne were threatening to take over before a cruel run of injuries took them out of the running for the time being.Both Belgians are out at the moment, and the Williams sisters are far from their best. Serena still ranks as the favourite at 7/2 despite being seventh seed, but there are a total of nine players priced at 14/1 or shorter which says everything about the tightness of the event. Four of these players are Russian.Two of them, Anastasia Myskina (French Open) and Maria Sharapova (Wimbledon) have already taken Grand Slams, and this is remarkable simply because no Russian lady had ever won a Major prior to them.Myskina looked very rusty in Sydney last week however, and would need a monumental lift in form after going down easily to Chinese qualifier Shauai Peng. She is priced at 10/1.Sharapova was selected by readaBet to win Wimbledon, and so she did from a price of 16/1. She has since proved herself to be a worthy Grand Slam winner, having won four more titles since the SW19 success, as well as several other semi final and final appearances. Coupled with Wimbledon, the other highlight came in her last outing at the Tour Championship, where she also got the better of Serena Williams in the final.5/1 is the best price to be found, and with the doubts surrounding the other main contenders we feel this is a decent proposition. This will only be her third trip to Melbourne, and the third round is her best effort to date, but 2004 was a breakthrough year of huge proportions for Sharapova, and she can take to the court against anybody knowing that she can beat them, and also knowing that she has the ability to win a tournament of this magnitude. Lindsey Davenport is the top seed and priced 9/2, but considering her withdrawal from Sydney with bronchitis, we do not see it as advisable to put any money behind her.For the fiercely proud Australians, most of their tennis heroes have been in the men's game, but we are going to go for one of their own in the ladies draw on this occasion. Her name is Alicia Molik, and we believe that she has the game to go all the way. Her previous Grand Slam efforts have not been remarkable although the fourth round was made here last year before French powerhouse Amelie Mauresmo squeaked past her. She had already beaten a seeded player in the shape of Daniella Hantuchova by that stage.The South Australian went on to win three titles during 2004 however, in Zurich, Stockholm and Luxembourg. In Zurich, which was also on hard courts, she even beat an on form Maria Sharapova in the final, and the Russian had not lost for twelve matches at that point.Another highlight came at the Olympics where a bronze medal was claimed on very similar courts and conditions to those she will experience in Melbourne. 10/1 is available about her prospects, and she showed great form in Sydney last week. At time of writing she is waiting to play in the final there and so will make the trip south-west in high spirits. With the crowd always keen to latch on to a home product, and with the draw decimated as it is, we feel this could be the time for Molik to make a big jump towards becoming a Grand Slam champion and 10/1 is available.