Bay Hill Golf Preview

Lovers of the Races may well be using golf this week as a medium to find a decent priced winner in amongst the short prices likely to succeed at the Cheltenham Festival. However, as chance would have, if ever there were to be a proverbial horse for a course during the 2005 PGA season, this is the one, namely Tiger Woods for the Bay Hill Invitational. There will certainly be winners from outside the 5/2 he is quoted at some stage of the Festival, and with 121 other runners lining up against the World Number One, can it really be sensible to take this on? We have to argue that it is. His poor form during the past couple pf seasons is now consigned to history, and it should be said that he never slipped lower than number two in the world, even at the bottom of his well documented slump. As a true champion only can, he chose the period following his demotion to number two as the inspiration to find motivation again. Some swing changes were made, and after taking a few months off in order to get married and presumably work on the practice range, it did not take long for him to refind winning tournament golf. Second place was claimed at the Tour Championship in November, and he ended his account for 2004 by taking the trophy at the Target World Challenge, an event which he organises. At this juncture there remained doubts over the sustainability of performance with the new swing, and also over whether he could win under real tournament conditions. 3rd place came at the Mercedes Championship in his seasonal reappearance, a solid run. And then in his next outing, a win came his way at the Buick Invitational. Many had seen enough by now to be convinced of his return, but the final piece of persuasion came at Doral a fortnight ago, where 2005 title number two went to the 28 year old. This win also took back to the summit in terms of world rankings, a place where he feels very much at home. No other player in the field has won more than once in America this season, and so on form alone there is a highly compelling case to be made. A glance down his past results at this event take this conviction on even further. Prior to last year (when he came 46th), Woods has won the Bay Hill Invitational every year since 2000. That is a run of four successive successes and a huge statement of comfort at the venue. On a tricky course where the field average score tends to be a touch over the level par total of 72, TW has a personal round average of more than four shots better than this over the last five years. Winning comes more naturally to Woods than it has for any player in the modern era, and winning on consecutive starts is something he has done 12 times in his career so far. With the Doral title safely tucked away last time after outdoing contestants of the calibre of Vijay Singh ad Phil Mickelson, his confidence must surely be sky high. We are happy to take the 5/2 available at an event he has made his own since the turn of the century. Last year was a blip, at a time when he was not playing well. The same accusation cannot be made this time around. Looking away from the favourite, we see little point in taking another outright price, although the likes of Ernie Els and Vijay Singh are sure to have their supporters. At 125/1, Billy Andrade stands out after a sustained run in which he has played consistently well, albeit without hitting the headlines. In three of his last four outings, at the AT&T Pebble Beach, Doral and last week at the Honda Classic, the 41 year old has posted top 12 finishes. This represents some of his best golf in recent times. The four-time winner on the PGA Tour also has a decent record at Bay Hill, including coming 10th two years ago, and we see this price as being inflated. Putting is always crucial at this course, and a look down the winners' board proves this, with the likes of Tiger Woods, Loren Roberts and Greg Norman all amongst those displayed. Andrade ranks as the 3rd best putter on the Tour this season. We advise having an each way bet to go alongside the selection of Woods in the betting verdict.