Bet Direct Winter Derby

When the Bet Direct Winter Derby takes place you start to really feel as though the Flat turf season is about to commence, as this contest generally takes place the weekend before the annual cavalry charge that is the Lincoln. This Saturday sees the tenth running of what is the most valuable - and undoubtedly the most competitive - race that takes place on an artificial surface in the UK. Sylvester Kirk's charge Sri Diamond landed the prize last season and, following a convincing victory on his reappearance here in January, he is bound to be a warm order to become the first horse to win this race twice. He has few miles on the clock for a seven-year-old and is open to further improvement. However, while I respect Sri Diamond, I feel that the form of last year's race needs to be treated with a degree of caution, as the pace was rather steady for a race of this nature - and appreciably slower compared to when Eccentric won the penultimate renewal - and, inevitably, given such a scenario, there were any number of hard luck stories. I would've been worried about a similar fracas this time around, as virtually the entire field are hold-up performers, but the presence of Mark Johnston's Luberon ensures that there will be a generous pace on offer. There's still the problem of horses back-pedalling blocking the advances of those coming from off the pace, though, which is commonplace at Lingfield. Analysing the way this race will be run, I envisage Gentleman's Deal, Hattan, Mighty, Red Spell and Speedy Sam sitting in Luberon's slipstream, while the remaining runners will all be anchored at the back. The likes Blue Bajan, Cimyla, Cusoon, Illustrious Blue and Sri Diamond will all be produced late. But it might be too late. The winner may have already flown by the time they hit top gear. The horse that I believe will steal a march and nick this race turning for home is the strapping Gentleman's Deal, who has yet to taste defeat in six races on the all-weather. The six-year-old, a 6/1 chance with VCbet at the time of writing, continues to go from strength-to-strength and made a seamless to transition from handicaps to Listed grade when readily scoring at Kempton last month, which will have teed him up nicely for this assignment. Funnily enough, the selection has run at the other three artificial tracks - Kempton, Southwell and Wolverhampton - but this will be his first spin around Lingfield. However, that needn't debar a huge performance from a huge horse, as his style of racing suggests to me that he's tailor-made for this course, and the way this race is likely to pan out will suit him down to the ground. Indeed, Paul Mulrennan tends to sit on the heels of the leader and generally kicks for home between the two furlong and furlong marker. With the relatively short straight at this Surrey circuit, I reckon Mick Easterby's charge will be able to pounce as heads are turned for home and the son of Danehill won't be for catching, for all that the main dangers, Blue Bajan and Sri Diamond, will be coming home like trains. Hattan has been fairing well in hot handicaps out in Dubai, and he'll be a threat to all if firing on all cylinders. The way Seb Sanders will ride the five-year-old probably won't be dissimilar to Mulrennan aboard the selection. But I can't see the Clive Brittain-trained entire coping with Gentleman's Deal's loping stride, while a number of the others in this race are either fully exposed or appear to be just below this level in terms of ability.Verdict - 2pts Gentleman's Deal @ 6/1 (VCbet)