BETFAIR 2009 KENTUCKY DERBY BETTING TIPS

We are just a few weeks away from the biggest event in Horse racing outside of the UK. The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs kicks off on May 2nd and we have some absolutely incredible equine specimens on the racecard for this one and I am predicting an absolute classic. I was extremely disappointed to see that The Pamplemousse wouldn't be running this year, but considering the injury he just picked up that kept him out of the Santa Anita Derby, it is probably a good thing and I can see him coming back in a big way next time around. A Preakness or Belmont appearance isn't out of the question either. Currently, the favourite horse in the Betfair markets is I Want Revenge who is currently trading at 4.9. He's a great horse and has never finished outside of the top three, but there's a simple fact that many people are overlooking here. I am definitely not backing I Want Revenge and we'll find out why in the next paragraph. We also have one of the most over-hyped horses in the history of the Kentucky Derby in Dunkirk who has only run once in his career and didn't even win. He finished second to Quality Road at Gulfstream in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. I don't think he's the best horse on dirt and his price of 7.8 belies a runner with lots of media attention, but little concrete evidence of quality, despite an exorbitant price tag (reported to be in the neighbourhood of $3 million). After watching him absolutely dominate the competition in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4th, I realized that this horse is the pick of the year. He's got plenty of racing experience and will be coming into the Derby searching for a five-for having won his last four races, all with G K Gomez on top. This three year-old has won well over a million dollars US in a mere 8 races. He's got pace to burn and I've never seen a horse jump out to a quicker lead, and then sustain that lead, than when he won be a tidy sum in the Santa Anita Derby. This is your horse for form and this is your horse for value. You can't ask for much more at this point- a proven performer who gets in done in the dirt. The 10/1 price-tag doesn't hurt either. Another solid bet, and he's definitely on my place ticket, is Quality Road who defeated the much-vaunted Dunkirk in the Florida Derby. He's been solid at Gulfstream this year with a 2nd place finish to Theregoesjojo in January. Interestingly enough he got his revenge on Theregoesjojo a month later, triumphing in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. A £421,549 haul off a mere three races is nothing to sneeze at. Quality Road is trading at 7.8. My show horse is the rock-solid Musket Man, who is by value bet for this race. He's scored in the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3) and the Illinois Derby (Grade 2) in the past month and a half and he is one of the best closers I've ever seen. He is quite the opposite of Dunkirk- being a horse with very little media attention. This gives the punters an advantage with his odds trading at an excellent 32.0 at Betfair.