Betting Choice Analysis on the Ayr Gold Cup

Assessing the likelihood of who will run in Saturday's totesport Ayr Gold Cup - never mind who will win - has whipped even those with the most analytical of eyes into something of quandary.At the time of writing, sprint king Dandy Nicholls has indicated that the well-backed Continent, winner of the race in 2001, is "doubtful" to go to post unless the ground eases markedly between now and the weekend, something which would seem unlikely from what can be gleaned from the forecasts available.The same problem - and the fact that he needs 19 above him in the handicap to come out in order to get a run - could thwart ante-post favourite Ice Planet's chance of going to post. Somehow, I don't think the other hopeful trainers will be saddened by the fact that Dandy Nicholls' duo are likely to miss the race, as the north Yorkshire-based handler has sent out four of the last five winners of the race, and has dominated virtually all of the major sprint handicaps so far this seasonI would have lumped on Intrepid Jack if he were guaranteed to make the cut, as he would be thrown-in running off the same mark as when making Tax Free dig deep in the extremely competitive William Hill Trophy at York two weeks ago. However, he is one place below Ice Planet in the handicap, therefore needs 20 to defect before being able to throw his hat into the ring - something which looks most unlikely to happen at this stage.Conversely, fast ground will not be a problem for the John Quinn-trained Fantasy Believer, who looks poised to run a big race and rates a tasty bet at 14-1.The seven-year-old has looked as good as ever this season, acquitting himself with credit in all of the big sprints, and he ran far better than his finishing position suggests in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster last time, where he made good late headway after encountering all manner of traffic problems to come home thirteenth to Out After Dark.The latter won the race decisively enough and still looks to be progressing, but a 5lb pull for a three-length beating should be enough to see Fantasy Believer exact revenge on Clive Cox's charge this time. Indeed, the selection will also be 11lb better of with Out After Dark compared to when finishing a length and a half ahead of him when they were third and fifth respectively in the Stewards' Cup previously.The Stewards' Cup runner-up Fonthill Road is another that is likely to swerve the race owing to the prospect of quick ground. Otherwise, Richard Fahey's charge would have to come right into the equation, as he looks more than capable of bagging a big prize off his current mark.Fantasy Believer also has the measure of Presto Shinko at the weights, having beaten that rival by half a length at Epsom at the end of June off level weights, but is now 5lb better off.At decent prices, I'd certainly give each-way squeaks to Bygone Days and Fictional, both of whom will appreciate the prevailing conditions, and come here on the back of solid recent efforts.Betting verdict: 1pt e/w Fantasy Believer @ 14/1 (VCbet)