Betting Choice Analysis: Williams v Klitschko

Following his upset of Mike Tyson in July, British heavyweight Danny Williams has the chance on Saturday to become the WBC World Heavyweight Champion when he takes on Vitali Klitscko at the Mandalay Bay Hotel in Las Vegas.The boxing world, including Klitschko was stunned by Williams's victory over Iron Mike, although as the Londoner himself said, Tyson was only 40% of the boxer he was in his prime. Tyson has been circling the lower ranks of the heavyweights in recent times, utilising his incomparable box office appeal to secure lucrative deals, despite an ongoing succession of unconvincing displays. Defeat was inevitable at some stage, and 31 year old Williams was the beneficiary.Klitschko is the best in the business in what is a lack lustre division at present. The Ukrainian said it was his dream to face Tyson, but this dream was taken away by Williams, which, as the sound bite for the fight goes, makes him really angry.He was the man who effectively forced Lennox Lewis into retirement when he pushed the greatest heavyweight of the generation extremely hard in June 2003. Ahead on everyone's card at the time, it was only an enormous cut above his left eye which forced the contest to be halted.Such facial frailty could be Williams's only hope, but as he is six inches shorter than his opponent it will not be easy to get within range. It would take great skill and courage to get inside the 6 ft 7 inch frame, and we doubt whether Williams has suddenly developed these attributes.His tale of the tape reads 32 wins (27 KOs) and 3 losses, which is not dissimilar to Klitschko's record of 34 and 2 but the calibre of opponent is entirely different.Williams has been beaten by Sinan Samil Sam, a stable mate of Klitschko's in six rounds, the average American Michael Sprott, and one of Tyson's former fall guys, fellow Brit Julius Francis.His opponent has lost only in controversial circumstances. A shoulder injury meant that Chris Byrd got the better of him, and then the Lewis result. It could be argued then that he has never actually lost a fight under normal circumstances, and barring another mishap, we do not see how Williams will beat him. The Englishman himself says that it will take a 40% improvement for him to do so, and this does not fill his potential supporters with confidence.At 11/50 there is not much appeal to back Vitali though, and instead we have looked at the round betting. Other than Sinan Sam, Williams has never been knocked out, and is regarded as having a chin of granite. The power of Klitschko will be more than he has ever seen or felt however, and so we feel it makes sense to look towards the end of the fight for a result to occur.Twelve rounds is the maximum, and we believe Williams can stay on his feet at least until the seventh. 14/1 can be found About Klitschko winning in the eighth round, with 20/1 for the ninth and we feel that a small stake on each outcome is the best course of action.Williams is 4/1 to win incidentally, with 100/1 for a first round KA in his favour, although it must be remembered that Klitschko has never been knocked out in his career.