Betting on Wimbledon and other Tennis events

If you are thinking about trying your hand at Wimbledon or other tennis events, there are a few pitfalls you can avoid with a little preparation.One of the biggest mistakes that newer tennis bettors make is not understanding the difference between the Grand Slam events versus the traditional "best of 3 sets" events. In the Men's Grand Slam events, all matches are "best of 5". The effect of this is that the fair price of a match between the same 2 players can be very different, depending on whether it is best of 3 or best of 5.Consider a match up between two players "A" and "B", where "A" will win each set 60% of the time. If p = 0.6 (odds for A to win each set) and q = 0.4 (odds of him not wining a set), the odds of him winning the match are:M = p*p + p*q*p + q*p*pThere are three terms, just as there are 3 possible ways to win a 3-set match. He can win the first two sets (p*p), the first and third set while losing the second (p*q*p), or lose the first and win the last two sets. So, the odds of "A" winning this match up are:It gets a bit more complicated in a best of 5 set match, but it is still doable. In terms of winning or losing a set, player A can win the match in three ways: win 3 straight sets; win 3 sets to 1, or win 3 sets to 2. There is only one possible way to win 3 straight sets. There are 3 possible ways to win 3-1 (since the match ends if he wins the first 3.) How many ways can you win 3 sets to 2? It is easier if you remember that "A" must win the last set. Since he won exactly 2 of the first 4 sets, there are (4 choose 2 = 4*3/2) or 6 ways to win 3-2. Therefore, the odds of "A" winning a best of 5 match are:M= p*p*p + p*p*p*q*3 + p*p*p*q*q*4This example shows how much of a difference it makes in playing the best of 5 versus the best of 3. When you are considering the match format, also realize that the greater the difference in skill level, the more it helps the favorite to play best of 5. You can use this method of analyzing matches to set lines for any series bet, or many prop bets such as "Will the Yankees win its playoff series in exactly 6 games". Once you have the tools in place to analyze these kinds of problems, you'll be surprised at how many opportunities present themselves to gain an edge over the bookmaker. Often bargains can be found on series plays where you are laying -400 or greater, since these types of bets mainly attract dog money from public bettors. Another area new tennis handicappers sometimes fail to appreciate is the drastic effect the surface has on play. The difference between grass, hard court and clay is so significant that you can practically treat them as 3 separate sporting events. Even casual fans know that Nadal is amazing on clay, but how well would he play on the grass at Wimbledon? If you are handicapping a match involving Nadal, you would get a much better indicator of his future play by looking only at Nadal's play on grass than if you considered his recent play on clay (including his dominant results in the French open).If you know each individual player well, you can improve your results further. What are the strengths of a particular player? Is he a big server of the ball, or does he have a potent ground game? In Wimbledon, the faster surface of the grass courts enhances players with a strong serve and volley game, whereas Clay courts do just the opposite. If you understand why a player does well or poorly, you might be able to use matches on other surfaces to help your handicapping. This can be helpful, especially if a player's form has changed in the past 6 months, where there haven't been many matches played on the surface of the upcoming match. For example, if a player has a very balanced game, you might consider both clay and hard court matches to handicap a later grass match.