2011 Kentucky Oaks Betting Preview and Tips Part Two

Bouquet Booth (Flower Alley) doesn't really jump off the page and has been beat by a number of the runners here in her past few contests. She is a blue-collar type and fought her way out of Hoosier Park. Needs a big jump in her Beyer efforts if she expects to factor though – she looks to be outmatched and isn't quite the longshot at 20/1 that Her Smile looks to be.

Daisy Devine (Kafwain) comes ooff the Fair Grounds circuit and is unraced in the past seven weeks. She has been working pretty well at Churchill and you can expect her to try to deploy a front-running trip. Being in the 9 stall might complicate things a bit for her but she might be able to put together a good run and her experience running in the slop in Louisiana will have her raring to go for this one. Unlike some of the others here, she is right in the middle of her season.

Street Storm (Stormy Atlantic) captured the ungraded Mardi Gras Stakes going off the turf at Fair Grounds last time out. A relatively obscure-looking horse she appears to be a bit of an also-ran. Priced at 50/1, she might deserve even more credit for the last effort as she was bumped early but still came back to score.

Holy Heavens (Holy Bull) is another more obscure horse but she gets a chance to prove herself on the big stage and looks to deliver a sizable return with her 50/1 price tag. The switch to jockey Kent Desmormeaux might be a big factor though and it needs to be respected.

Plum Pretty (Medaglia D'Oro) is already priced at 5/1 and will probably go off closer to 3/1 as I think she's looking like the play in this one. A smashing victory at Sunland Park back in the Sunland Park Oaks, she won by a disgusting 25 lengths and earned a colossal 99 Beyer. If she gets anywhere near that, she'll win the race – it's as simple as that. Note the sire of this one had another prominent Oaks winner who went on to win a race or two...

Rosie Napravnik is drawn out in the lucky 13 stall with St. John's River (Include) who is still just a maiden winner. She ran second in the Fair Ground Oaks and managed to close pretty well that day. She looks to be to a bit outmatched here but could return a heck of a price at 30/1.

I expect a fairly tough contest which would be a nice contrast to some of the other editions of the Kentucky Oaks we've been seeing over the past few years. Keep your eyes on Plum Pretty if she breaks well as she does need to be on, or near, the lead in order to have a genuine shot at this one. She's a bit of a wildcard as you have to ask yourself whether that last race of hers was really just a crappy race. There is a gulf between the Santa Anita and Sunland circuits and she took that crew to school after shipping over. Bob Baffert will be looking for a big weekend and a Plum Pretty – Midnight Interlude (War Front) double might be a hot bet.

The only real genuine closer in this one is St. John's River so watch out if Rosie gets her to the outside and she's had a fast early pace to aim at. I expect Plum Pretty and Joyful Victory to have their hands forced and they could get into a duel up front. If all goes according to plan, Zazu and Kathmanblu will sit just off the pace and try to make a move at the far turn, hoping to capitalize on a potential speed duel between the two chalky frontrunners.