Looking at Frankel Beyond the 2000 Guineas

The 800 pound gorilla in the room for the upcoming Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket is obviously the undefeated Henry Cecil charge Frankel (Galileo) and many punters will concede that this is not shaping up to be the best betting race you'll ever see thanks to his presence. It must be acknowledged that the three-year-old bay has gone from strength to strength throughout his five race career and you'll find him priced as low as 4/9 in the Guineas ante post markets.

While many punters will probably be either playing Frankel on the top end of the forecast or opting to beat him with one of his main rivals but your best betting strategy might be to take a gander at Frankel's long-term options – which present significantly more value than his upcoming race. The issue is the typical curse of ante post racing – you are banking on Frankel coming through the next race both victorious and in good long-term condition.

Virtually everybody who has an interest in flat racing will concede that Frankel is certainly not one of those types that wins the Guineas and is sent immediately to stud. Juddmonte clearly see him as a long-term stallion who will continually fetch a high price and they'll need several classics under his belt to achieve something like that. It looks like he will be more than able to handle the Derby distance and he does seem to be taking some interest down the road for a possible run at the Arc.

My best estimate is that a best-case-scenario Frankel run goes Guineas – Derby – Coral Eclipse with many observers thinking he will then take a run at the Arc. However, I've got a hunch that they may become a bit wary about his ability to go 1m4f against Group 1 company so there is a distinct chance that he may ship to Churchill Downs in November in an attempt to dethrone Goldikova (Anabaa) in the Breeders' Cup Mile. I don't see Frankel being able to run 1m4f in France after a four-race season but the 1m distance would play much more to his strength and I see it as the only potential loss that connections might not mind Frankel taking. There wouldn't be much shame in getting nosed by Goldikova defending her crown for a fourth consecutive time in the swansong of her career.

Should Frankel come out of the Guineas in one piece he will certainly head for the Epsom Derby where he already trades as low as 3/1 for a score there. Recent debutante, and stable-mate of Frankel's, World Domination (Empire Maker) will be looking to challenge Frankel in that one, though he is skipping the 2000 Guineas this weekend.

Several online bookmakers continue to offer a special double on a Guineas/Epsom wager for Frankel but the price on that one continues to shorten by the day.

Though there are no current odds available for the Coral Eclipse, you would expect Frankel to face a stiff challenge on his first run against older colts and geldings. It would be a tough test should be take on the likes of Cape Blanco (Galileo), St Nicholas Abbey (Montjeu) and Gitano Hernando (Hernando).

Should Frankel come into the Coral Eclipse undefeated with a Guineas and a Derby under his belt then he will surely go off as a favourite around 3/1 unless there are questions about his fitness or he winds up with a different pilot than his preferred Tom Queally.

Frankel's odds of running in the Arc De Triomphe are trading as low as 8/1 with some bookmakers but the general consensus seems to be a 12/1 shot on the ante post markets. As it stands, both Workforce (King's Best) and So You Think (High Chapparal) are priced shorter than Frankel with odds of around 4/1 and 8/1 respectively. Dubai World Cup winner Victoire Pisa (Neo Universe) and Godolphin's Rewilding (Tiger Hill) are ranked behind Frankel for Arc glory.