Breeders' Cup Turf Betting Tips

In the last five renewals of the Breeders' Cup Turf, Ballydoyle maestro Aidan O'Brien has trained the winner twice, the runner-up twice, and the third on one occasion. A pretty impressive record by any standards, especially for a European trainer in an American race. This year, the Tipperary-based handler is set to rely on the lightly-raced Scorpion, a versatile colt who landed the St Leger last year before running below expectations behind Hurricane Run in the Arc de Triomphe. That effort at Longchamp is best forgotten as he was clearly not on song - perhaps the race came too soon just three weeks after winning the 14-furlong Leger under testing conditions - and Scorpion made a highly encouraging reappearance at The Curragh on October 8 when second to Frank Sonata. That was the son of Montjeu's first run for over a year so the mere fact that he was beaten in a Listed race doesn't temper enthusiasm in the slightest. Indeed, that was a cracking effort following such a lengthy lay-off. He travelled supremely well during the race and quickened when asked to do so, only his lack of fitness finding him out in the closing stages as he went down by a length to a battle-hardened rival. Although he won the Leger on heavy going, it was sheer class that got Scorpion home that day, and he is a much better horse on a decent surface. This makes his comeback effort in the aforementioned race, the Rathbarry Stud's Barathea Finale Stakes, all the more meritorious, as underfoot conditions were pretty dire. It is testament to his class that he can overcome such elements. Scorpion gave Hurricane Run a scare on top of the ground in the Irish Derby last term, making Andre Fabre's charge pull out all the stops to score by half-a-length, the pair finishing clear of the remainder. And the selection then registered a ready victory in the Grand Prix de Paris on good ground at Longchamp where he demonstrated a potent turn of foot. That turn of foot will stand Scorpion in good stead at Churchill Downs on November 4, for the straight is a short one, like at Longchamp, therefore it's a track which is conducive to a horse with the ability to instantaneously accelerate. Furthermore, he should get the genuine good ground on which he is most effective. Opposing Hurricane Run is never easy, because he is without a doubt the best horse in the race. If he were at the top of his game, as he was when coming with a withering run to land last season's Arc in fine style, he would be too good for these rivals. However, despite there being numerous excuses for why he hasn't performed to a similar level this season, those very excuses are starting to wear thin, and I suspect that he's simply not the same horse as last year. Despite this, Andre Fabre's charge should still play a leading role, but he does look vulnerable against rivals with a good turn of foot. The same applies to last year's winner of this and his stablemate, Shirocco, who will probably find at least one or two too quick in the straight unless, like at Belmont Park last year, a deluge were to arrive and turn the ground soft. English Channel and Cacique, who was in the care of Fabre before switching to the US, are strong contenders for the home contingent. Personally, I can see Cacique faring the better of the two over this trip, as the former looks best over a mile and a quarter in my opinion. The like of T H Approval, Go Deputy and the penultimate winner of this race, Better Talk Now, have a bit to find on what they have shown so far during the current campaign. The Brian Meehan-trained Red Rocks has been a model of consistency this season and turned in a cracking effort when runner-up to Sixties Icon in the St Leger on his most recent start. The three-year-old had previously failed by just a head to repel Youmzain in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York, form which has subsequently been boosted by the winner who gave Arc hero Rail Link a race in the Prix Niel before landing a Group 1 in Germany. Red Rocks is a versatile sort who acts on any ground and can either be ridden prominently or held up off the pace. The son of Galileo looks nailed on to run a big race without being quite good enough to win. It would be no surprise at all to see him reach the frame. Verdict - 1pt Scorpion @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes)