CAN NADAL MASTER ROME
As the proverb goes, “all roads lead to Rome,” so it was, literally, as Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal arrived in Rome with the same goal, to vie for their respective 17th Masters Series title – a feat that would equal Andre Agassi in the history books. Now that Federer mailed in a desultory performance in his opening round loss to Ernests Gulbis, you could say his road found a dead end in Rome. Bummer.
Now the path is wide open for Nadal, a four-time Rome champion (2005-2007, and 2009) to Master Rome and to trump Federer on the Masters level.
The scintillating, out-of-this-world run Nadal negotiated at Monte Carlo over a week ago, that saw him drop all of 14 games and win his sixth title in a row – an Open Era record – has fans, experts and pundits alike tipping Nadal as the favourite in Rome. If I were a player coming up against him on his beloved clay, I would be afraid.
William Hill has Nadal at a best price of 2/7 to win outright. We all know Rafa is the top dog on clay, the King presiding over his red Kingdom. There is no question he is the smart play to clean up in Rome.
As much as Rome is about Nadal in the draw and what heights he can soar to in the Papal capital, it is to some extent about Novak Djokovic and what he might muster in Rome. A souvenir bag, a runner-up dish or could he muster the unthinkable, the title.
Last year, Djokovic put forward his best-ever account against Nadal here in the final, only to in part eclipse that performance in the semis of the subsequent Madrid Masters. If Djokovic faltered in both matches he faltered against arguably the best clay-courter ever, Nadal. It is not like there is any question about his clay-court skills. He just got bested by the best and there is no shame in that.
Djokovic is trading at a tempting 6/1 price to win his second Rome title. He won this title in 2008, beating Stanislas Wawrinka in the final. (That same year saw Nadal beaten in his opening round match by Juan Carlos Ferrero. Not to take anything away from Ferrero’s win but it has to be pointed out that Nadal had been playing injured, hindered by a blister.)
Of course, Murray is in attendance and William Hill is after offering him rather favourably at 12/1. But clay is not his playground; his natural surface and so I would personally skip his odds. I don’t see him winning the Rome title and few do either.
Several Spanish flavours to bet on are Ferrer, Verdasco and Almagro – they each have enough clay-court skills to make them theoretically viable contenders, none more so than Verdasco who is after winning the Barcelona Open on Sunday. Ferrer and Verdasco are offered at 25/1 while Almagro is tipped at 50/1 large. In this group, Verdasco has the best shot but cynics are not buying what he is selling, at least not while Nadal remains alive in the draw.
Robin Soderling (25/1), Tomas Berdych (50/1), Jo Wilfried Tsonga (33/1) and now Ernests Gulbis (25/1) are getting some attention. But what this foursome has in common I would sum up so: a lot of expectation raised and dashed.