Chelsea vs Newcastle United: Preview, Odds and Betting Tips - 28/05/2023

Can Chelsea upset Newcastle United?

Two teams who are in unfamiliar positions on the Premier League table are facing off on the last day of the 2022/23 season. 

Chelsea, who are languishing in the bottom half of the table, will be going up against Newcastle United, who have braved all odds to make the top three of the Premier League. It is a position they can lose if they fall to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, however. 

The last time both teams found themselves in these positions was in 2015 (Chelsea) and 2003 (Newcastle) respectively. Much of the scenario surrounding their current form is a repeat of their unique circumstances from those times as well. 

Chelsea struggled with team cohesion and it would cost them, while Newcastle had slowly built a formidable squad which culminated in a third-place finish in 2003.

Despite having tasted this success and failure in the past, the way this season has turned out for both teams has been nothing short of a rollercoaster.

Starting from the outcome of the reverse fixture in November 2022 which Chelsea lost, and moving on to Newcastle's run up to third place which included brushing aside their former fellow mid-table teams and grabbing valuable points from the traditional big six, then watching as Chelsea struggled to play football despite having an exciting coach and a team with so much promise, the May 28 tie is the culmination of a story that will go down in history. 

The form guides of both teams is a good place to start.

Form Guide: Chelsea

Chelsea will be facing champions Manchester City before taking on Newcastle United to wrap up their season. They will be going to the Etihad with an abysmal record from their past five games. One win and one draw in their last five does not inspire much confidence against the champions, who are expected to inflict further damage on the Blues' season. Luckily for them, they have done just enough to keep them in the middle of the table regardless of the outcome of that game. 

However, they are not expected to win at the Etihad and also win against Newcastle United on May 28. A miracle of football could happen at Stamford Bridge and Chelsea could finish the season with a win. But as stated, the odds of that remain low based on their record from the last few games. Outside the win against Bournemouth in this period, the Blues have not scored three goals since October. 

They have lost by a margin of two goals or more three times in this period as well, while conceding two goals in their draw.

Form Guide: Newcastle United

Newcastle United could have sealed third place a while ago but inexperience counted against them in the final stages of the season. 

Unlike Chelsea, however, they won three of their last five convincingly (with a game in hand before the Chelsea tie). They scored a whopping 12 goals in that time to keep the pressure on Manchester United and Liverpool, with whom they are in the fight for the top four. 

Had they been in this form between February and March, they would have been comfortable in third place just like Arsenal and Manchester City were in second and first place. 

The March international break helped Eddie Howe recalibrate and he found the best way for his team to get back to their best. Since then, it has been a breeze for the team, who will be feeling very confident ahead of Leicester City and then Chelsea come May 28. 

With players who do not waste time in transitions, Howe will seek to bring down Stamford Bridge for the Magpies fans, who have not celebrated a victory at the Londoners' home since May 2012.

What to expect from the match

As stated in Newcastle's form guide, the team does not waste time in transitions. 

They have one of the shortest average times in the Premier League for taking the ball from defence to attack. This is not done through expert one-touch football but with quick passes to players in the right positions. 

Chelsea will hold a good chunk of the ball with their more technical players but will struggle to break down a resolute Newcastle defence on the day. 

There will also be some altercations on the pitch thanks to Newcastle players and their tendency for tough tackles.

Betting predictions

Both teams to score

Chelsea have gotten over their rut in front of goal and their chance creation is much better than it was after Frank Lampard took over as interim manager. They will create a number of chances and score from one or some of them. For Newcastle, however, it is a given that they will score.

William Hill is offering 1.53 for this to happen.

Chelsea to score first

This is a bold tip but we’re baking the home ground advantage will also come into play for the Blues, who will be hoping not to disappoint their fans on the last day of the league. They will strike in the first half as has been the trend in their last few games and this will not change because of Newcastle.

William Hill is offering a tempting 2.00 odds for the Blues to find the net first.

Over 2.5 goals

The last meeting between both sides this season ended in a narrow win for the Magpies. Both teams are now in a much better place and have greatly improved in their chance creation and goal scoring metrics. 

As both teams will score, a bet predicting more than two goals in the game is not only the safest but the wisest for punters who want to cash in one last time before the league goes on summer break.

William Hill is offering 1.61 odds for at least three goals to be scored after 90 minutes.

All odds are via William Hill and all info valid as at the time of writing.

Odds could differ now.