Cheltenham 2007: Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview

It's hard to deny that a good deal of gloss has been removed from this season's totesport Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival on March 16 following the defection of reigning champion War Of Attrition. Personally I think he would have come out on top again. But a new king of the staying chaser ranks will definitely be crowned now, and many are convinced that the glittering accolade will go to Kauto Star. The Paul Nicholls-trained gelding is clearly a class act, but punters have to weight up whether he rates value at a best-priced 6/4 (VCBet)- that is whether such odds are truly reflective of his chance. To my mind, he should be a 5/2 shot, not as short as 5/4 - such cramped odds are in no way indicative of his actual superiority; they are indicative of his perceived superiority. I am going to lay Kauto Star - and lay him big. The trip is two and a half furlongs further than he's ever been before. And if he blunders at a fence in the Gold Cup in a similar fashion to his last two starts, he'll not be so lucky as to get away with it, of that you can be certain. Some will chuckle when I mention Beef Or Salmon. After all, he's ran in the last four Gold Cup's, failing to complete twice, finishing out with the washing last year, and his best attempt at landing this elusive prize was when staying on well to finish fourth to Best Mate in 2004. However, while the 11-year-old's record when racing on this side of the pond is disconcerting, odds of 20/1 about Michael Hourigan's stable star can only be described as insulting. Think about it, he went of at 5/1 for this race as a novice when falling in the 2003 running, having had just four previous starts over fences. Yes, Beef Or Salmon is a risky proposition on the basis that it may that he simply does not perform when racing outside of Ireland. But forget this factor for a moment, and ask yourself whether he should be18/1? Especially considering that underfoot conditions are set to be far more testing this season compared to the quartet of Gold Cup's in which he has previously participated. Of course he shouldn't be. He should be 5/1. Or maybe shorter. He came from a highly unpromising position to reel-in odds-on favourite The Listener when landing the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown last month, recording his tenth Grade 1 success and proving in the process that he is in good heart. In addition, the selection's jumping is now better than it's ever been. And as he proved in his latest start, he's nothing if not tenacious. I genuinely doubt that there will be many staying on up the hill better than Beef Or Salmon and, if Andrew MacNamara can get his mount settled into a good rhythm in the early part of the race, his stamina could prove most decisive. Exotic Dancer has made giant strides this term and has won four of his five starts over fences at Cheltenham, including when slamming Our Vic by 18 lengths in the Letheby And Christopher Chase on January 27. Jonjo O'Neill's chaser is open to further improvement and is clearly a major contender. The Listener readily beat Beef Or Salmon in the Lexus Chase but was overhauled by that rival in the Irish Hennessy latest, yet is less than half the price of the latter. The Robert Alner-trained grey will be in his element should the going remain testing and looks bound to make his presence felt, although I reckon he'll find at least a couple too good. State Of Play goes well fresh and it will be interesting to see how he fares following his memorable triumph in the Hennessy at Newbury at the end of November. Strictly on the book, Evan Williams' progressive chaser has plenty to find, but he cannot be discounted all the same. Others, including the likes of L'ami, My Will and Cane Brake can all be given each-way squeaks, but no more. Verdict - 2pts e/w Beef Or Salmon @ 18/1 (Bluesquare) Click here to see all the free bets on Cheltenham