Cheltenham Gold Cup betting markets

Now is as good a time as any to take a look at the antepost markets for the Cheltenham Festival and, of course, the totesport Gold Cup is the highlight of the four-day meeting, so this is the first of the championship races we will look to for a value bet.It is stating the blindingly obvious to say that all eyes will be firmly affixed to Kauto Star, particularly if, as it would seem to assume, he comes through his intended trial for the big day in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury in February with flying colours.There is little point in trying to pick holes in Kauto Star's form, because, even if you point to the fact that his victories in the Betfair Chase and King George, his emphatic victory over Voy Por Ustedes in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown was proof enough that Paul Nicholls' charge is some machine.However, he is no bet at a best-priced 7/4 at StanJames. In winning both the Betfair Chase and the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day, Kauto Star has incontrovertibly proved that he stays three miles. But while the Gold Cup is just two and a half furlongs farther, it's the unique undulations of Prestbury Park, the unforgiving fences and the break-neck pace at which the championship races are run that finds out even the most talented of horses.In recent years, the likes of Carvill's Hill, One Man and Florida Pearl have all gone into the Gold Cup as strong favourites and all failed to deliver. It could be that Kauto Star is genuinely very special and that he will pass the ultimate examination of a chaser's aspirations of greatness. But the poser for punters is whether, at 7/4, the value lies in backing or opposing him. There is no doubt in my mind that the latter is the wise option.Indeed, some may perceive this very concept as ridiculous, but I would honestly not rue my decision in looking elsewhere if Kauto does go and hack up. Reason being, his price is not commensurate with his chance, in my opinion. Kicking King arguably landed a more competitive renewal of the King George in 2004 than the one Kauto Star recently won, yet Tom Taaffe's charge returned at 4/1 when winning the Gold Cup in the same season. This gives rise to the impact of hype. When hype surrounds a horse it is easier to get drawn in by the allure of the horse in question. As racing enthusiasts we like to speculate that a true equine champ is in our midst's. But in Kauto Star the superlatives being attributed to the French import are, to some extent, based on what he might turn out to be, rather than what he has demonstrated he actually is, in his career thus far.Last year's Gold Cup hero, War Of Attrition, will probably never captivate racegoers with a performance as scintillating as those which Kauto Star has delivered in his races during the current campaign. However, the waters which remain unchartered where Kauto Star are concerned have already been safely and successfully navigated by the Mouse Morris-trained Irish raider. And at 5/1 with Stan James he makes for a far more tempting betting proposition than his much-vaunted rival. A pattern that has emerged with crystal clear clarity is that War Of Attrition is a horse that comes to hand in the spring. Last season he was beaten twice during December and then, following a break of nearly three months, the son of Presenting went to Cheltenham at the top of his game and produced a masterful performance under regular pilot Connor O'Dwyer to beat Hedgehunter and company in commanding fashion. As such, I am not remotely concerned by the fact that he has been beaten in his three most recent outings. Although effective enough on soft going, War Of Attrition is, as his victories in the Gold Cup and the Irish equivalent at Punchestown a month later last year illustrate, a better horse on better ground, which he will almost certainly encounter again at this year's Festival. Yet to fall in 15 starts over fences and with stamina assured, War Of Attrition will be a formidable opponent on March 16.A horse I like a lot and fear to some extent is In Compliance. Although untried over farther than two and a half miles, his trainer Michael O'Brien is convinced that this lightly-raced seven-year-old will be even come into his own when upped to three miles plus, and there is every reason to believe that O'Brien's confidence will be vindicated. But I just wonder whether his comparative inexperience over fences will count against him. It could be that next year will be his year. Hennessy victor State Of Play is respected. On a steep upward curve, Evan Williams' stable star looked a horse of enormous potential when beating a quality field at Newbury on November 25 and I would not be surprised in the least to see him play a leading role on Gold Cup day. However, as in the case of In Compliance, I reckon that he too might be found out by his inexperience and that next year could be the time when we witness this gelding really come of age. Our Vic has been somewhat hit and miss overall, but one thing that cannot be questioned is that he is a class act. He too dispelled stamina doubts surrounding him when running out a ready seven-length winner from subsequent Rehearsal Chase winner Neptune Collonges in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby in October. David Pipe has kept him under wraps since and it will not be a bad thing at all if he goes straight to the Gold Cup now as he is evidently best when fresh.But I am of the opinion that that he will find at least one or two too quick on a decent surface at Cheltenham - his most impressive performances have come on slower ground - a remark which also applies to Lexus Chase winner The Listener, while Welsh National hero Halcon Genelardais is improving fast, but not fast enough to make him a serious Gold Cup contender in my opinion. Like In Compliance and State Of Play, Alan King's charge may well take higher rank in the years to come than he will in 2007. Verdict - 2pts War Of Attrition @ 5/1 (Stan James)See all Cheltenham Free bets