Coral Welsh National BettingChoice Analysis

SUE Smith appears to have worked the oracle with CHIVES, who joined her West Yorkshire yard from Henrietta Knight's stable during the summer, and the nine-year-old looks a handicap 'good thing' in the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow on December 28.Henrietta Knight coaxed some sterling efforts out of Chives during the gelding's spell with her, but, as is often the case, sometimes horses are simply galvanised by a change of scenery, a remark that most definitely applies to Chives.A highly encouraging second to Horus in the Edward Hanmer Chase at Haydock on November 14, which was Chives' first run for 11 months, was followed by an awesome display of sure-footed jumping en route to beating Sir Rembrandt by an impressive six-lengths back at the Mersyside venue earlier this month.Chives, due to go up 10lb when reassessed shortly, looks well in with just a 4lb penalty for his Haydock victory. Even with the penalty taken into consideration, the son of Good Thyne is still able to race off a mark 2lb lower than when second in this race in 2002. Chives relishes cut in the ground, has stamina in abundance and jumps like a proverbial stag; three attributes a Welsh National winner needs. Furthermore, connections feel that their charge has improved since his last run. With this in mind, the 7-1 offered by Sporting Odds looks extremely generous.The chief threat is the Paul Nicholls-trained L'aventure, who ran a cracking trial for this race when chasing home One Knight in the Rehearsal Chase over this course last time.One Knight was making his seasonal reappearance there and made all to score in good style. Although he is likely to have come on for that run, L'aventure was staying on strongly at the finish, shaping like an out-and-out stayer. With a 4lb pull for just over a one-length beating, and this three-furlong farther trip in her favour, Paul Nicholls' mare can come out on top this time.At this stage, Martin Pipe has six entries, five of which are owned by David Johnson. However, it may be the one not under his ownership that is best equipped for this contest. The horse in question is Akarus, who has been the subject of strong support for this race, largely on his run in last year's renewal, in which he was travelling supremely well when falling four out. He failed to complete on his next two starts and has not run since, but he goes well fresh and is potentially well handicapped. On the flipside, he does not appear to be one to trust implicitly and the fact that he has failed to complete in four of his last six starts is rather disconcerting.Of the Johnson-owned entries, Maximize could well give a good account at rewarding odds, although it would be a surprise if were good enough to win.This race is shaping up to be one of the best renewals of recent times and will be extremely competitive. But Chives has ticks in all the right boxes and is a confident recommendation to recoup those Christmas expenses.