Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot preview (Friday)

Virginia Waters ran a much better race than I anticipated when fourth in the Oaks and is clearly the one to beat when she drops back in trip for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot at York on Friday 17th June. But she will be contesting her fourth Group One race within the space of six weeks and I reckon that Karen's Caper, who can be backed at a tasty 8-1, might be the one to benefit most from her exertions and nick this Group One prize.The John Gosden-trained filly looked good when landing the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket in April, before finishing a highly creditable fourth behind Virginia Waters in the 1,000 Guineas at the same venue a month later. She was beaten just short of four lengths there and, meeting Virginia Waters on the same terms, will need to raise her game. However, it is worth remembering how that fillies' classic panned out. There was a break-neck pace on and those that raced up with the pace, which included Karen's Caper, who was always in the leading trio, felt the pinch inside the final furlong, at which point the eventual winner cut through the field to score decisively. Although Virginia Waters did win the race in good style, things dropped just right for her. In essence, she was essentially passing tired horses in the final furlong, and it may well be that she was flattered by the overall manner of her victory. Furthermore, she has since had two relatively hard races, finishing eighth of 18 to Saoire in the Irish 1,000, then over five lengths fourth in the Vodafone Oaks at Epsom won by Eswarah. Those two starts are bound to have taken their toll and it's significant that no horse in the last 16 years has run at Epsom and come onto land the Coronation Stakes. Whether you are a sympathiser of statistics or not that is pretty conclusive food for thought. In addition, if Aidan O'Brien does not pitch Mona Lisa in as a pacemaker for Virginia Waters, a tactical affair may ensue, which will count against the Kingmambo filly. In contrast, Karen's Caper has the necessary tactical speed to cope with such a scenario, and the sharp nature of this track will also be more to her liking than the stiff eight furlongs of Newmarket's Rowley Mile. Maids Causeway and Cape Columbine, second and fifth respectively at Newmarket, both command respect. However, Maids Causeway looks to me as though she is crying out for a step up in trip and I think this sharp mile will not play to her strengths. Cape Columbine is more effective when there is cut in the ground, as she demonstrated when readily landing a valuable sales race at Newmarket last October; therefore, unless the heavens were to open significantly over the Knavesmire between now and Friday, she may come up short again. Damson covered herself in glory for the most part last season and looked like a filly with a bright future when cosily beating Oratorio in the Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh. She surrendered her unbeaten tag when failing to land the odds in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket where she was not suited by the rain-softened ground. The daughter of Entrepreneur suffered a setback at the beginning of the season, causing her to miss the 1,000 Guineas. She was not totally discredited on her reappearance when finishing a close-up ninth in the Irish equivalent where the ground was not to her liking. Although the likely fast going at York will suit her, she has yet to prove conclusively that she has the stamina for the mile trip and I wouldn't be surprised if she were to fail to see it out and end up reverting to sprint distances. Get free bets on Royal Ascot!