Costa Rica vs Germany Betting Analysis

Four years ago I published an article on the frequency of the favoured nation failing to win in the opening match of a major International tournament. Much to my disgust I didn't quite have the guts to back Senegal to beat France, and instead plumped for the draw. As we all know that was a massive error and gone was one of those cracking 10/1 shots that don't come along all too often. Anyway this time the underdogs, Costa Rica can be backed at a massive 14/1 to dispose of the tournament hosts in the opening match of the World Cup. I do not though expect a second successive opening game shock, especially with the visitors going into Friday's encounter on the back of a 4-0 drubbing to Ukraine, who were also without their star striker - Andriy Shevchenko. It will take an enormous turnaround in fortunes to come anyway near matching the previous results on the biggest stage. After the end of 2002 World Cup Costa Ricans managed third in thefirst stage group, losing out only to eventual semi-finalists Turkey on goal difference, while they were the only squad to score two goals against Brazil. Although World Cup openers are notoriously tight affairs, a look at the friendly results for Germany over the past year suggests the tournament could start with a bang. At the confederations Cup twelve months ago, the matches involving the hosts averaged an astonishing five goals a game (not including extra time goals). The past year of friendlies have seen a drop in the average to a still more than respectable 3.6 goals average. With the above statistics to hand, one bet springs instantly to mind. Backing five or more goals at 17/4 looks ever so tempting considering the attacking nature of this current German side. Unlike previous generations, there also appears to be problems defensively and with Jens Lehman not disguising his unhappiness about the official ball, don't be surprised if the visitors breach the hosts at least once. A hugely popular market on the spreads for such tournaments is the bookings. Buyers though at around the 50 mark should be aware that the opening referee, Horacio Elizondo is vastly experienced and despite his South American background isn't known for producing large make-ups. Much of course will depend on just how strict FIFA want their officials to be, and so a watching brief is advised.