England vs New Zealand Betting Preview

HOME SWEET HOME<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> Amongst the series of international fixtures being played during this month, Saturday's contest between England and New Zealand was always the one that caught the eye most readily. Seeing how the games have transpired so far only makes our anticipation heighten. New Zealand have been imperious, and to say they have outclassed Wales and Ireland over the past fortnight is an understatement. It has almost been a case of men against boys, and whilst one would not question the commitment shown by the Celtic nations, their level of skill has simply been eclipsed by the opponents. 41-3 was the score against Wales, although it should be pointed out that the Grand Slam winners were without half a dozen definite first choice players. They then crossed the Irish seas for what turned out to be a PR exercise as much as a genuine contest, and Graham Henry chose to select an entirely new fifteen. The score was 45-7 and Ireland were utterly smashed. England have only had one game to prepare, against Australia last week. Both teams had been going through a tough time of late, but England were convincing in their 26-16 victory. It was a game that they simply had to win, and they did so with ease, although it was slightly worrying that Australia remained within a score of the World Champions up until the last five minutes. The core behind that victory was the front five, and in this area they must impose themselves once again on Saturday. Certainly the All Blacks are stronger than the Aussies here, but this an area of the game that we feel England can definitely compete strongly. If the scrum and lineout are reliable, and even destructive, this makes the rest of the game far easier to play. New Zealand may be looking great, but we should not forget that they were beaten as recently as August and the way South Africa did this was largely through the front and second rows. This in turn put pressure on Daniel Carter, and the prodigious fly half had his worst 80 minutes in a black shirt and his team misfired as a result. There is still a crux of experience in Andy Robinson's team, with six of the World Cup winners in the starting fifteen. Alongside them are some really exciting prospects, most notably Andrew Sheridan, Charlie Hodgson and Mark Cueto, the Sale trio who were outstanding seven days ago. New Zealand are the masters of building themselves up, only to fall down, and whilst we do not expect them to lose on Saturday, we expect it to be a fierce and close contest. Certain Kiwi commentators have written this week how England need a reality check as beating Australia last weekend was no feat of note. A +15.5 point handicap for England looks too high to us. England have not been defeated by more than six points at Twickenham since the 1999 World Cup. This is a run of 31 games, and although New Zealand are looking good, England are desperate to build on the confidence gained last week. There are technical areas that need to be worked on, most significantly perhaps in securing possession of the ball on the floor. Pat Sanderson and Lewis Moody need to play like the open side flankers they naturally are and hit the rucks hard, low and with purpose. Ball runners will need to remain on their feet for as long as possible to enable Moody, Sanderson, (and anybody else who happens to be nearby in fact), the best opportunity to do this. Any approaching AB's should also be dumped on their backs before they have time to find support or offload. If England can compete here, and it is a big if as the Southern Hemisphere teams do seem to have an advantage in this area, they have every chance of claiming a famous victory. Controlling the tackle area is absolutely key to dictating the pace of the game, and there is no doubt that every effort will be made to stop the ball getting out to New Zealand's flying backline. The second England try last week illustrated that they can fight on the floor, the fifteen phases suggesting that Robinson has learnt some lessons from his time as part of the British Lions in the summer. All eyes are on the World Cup in eighteen months time now, and if England are to lose in the way of Wales or Ireland to the perennial favourites, it would seriously undermine their confidence and leave a bleak outlook. There is no more time for starting again, and this England set up has to play as if this is a huge opportunity. We feel they will and expect the margin to fall well short of the handicap, in England's favour. Betting Verdict2.20 pts England (+15.5) to win at 9/10