Barcelona Set to Crush Sporting Gijon

France can avenge their World Cup final defeat to Italy two years ago by overcoming Roberto Donadoni's side in their decisive group match in Zurich on Tuesday night.

Raymond Domenech's men are 15/8 to get the better of the Azzurri, who also need a win to stand a best chance of getting their Euro 2008 campaign back on track (although should Romania lose in the other Group C match against Holland, a score draw would see Italy through).

With Italy slightly better placed to progress than the French, Les Bleus know that only a win will rescue their Euro campaign, and though they have flattered to deceive so far in the tournament, they are not as terrible a side as many are making out.

France played better against Holland than they did in the goalless draw with Romania, and though they lost 4-1 to the Oranje the scoreline belies the true nature of the match. At 1-0 down they were denied a good penalty shot and they created numerous chances to score only to be denied by an in-form Edwin van der Sar and errant finishing. The Dutch on the counterattack were simply more clinical.

Italy were also unfortunate against Romania. They had a perfectly good goal disallowed, and a dodgy penalty awarded against them, but they also rode their luck in the match. Romania hit the post and had a penalty saved, while at the other end, Italy did not create nearly as many goalscoring chances as France did against the Netherlands.

The Azzurri are overly dependent on the misfiring Luca Toni, have scored just once in two matches and lack the pace up front to hurt good defences. It could be argued that France have an ageing defence but Italy's is rudderless without Fabio Cannavaro, while at the other end, given the choice between Thierry Henry, who scored against the Dutch, and the quicksilver Franck Ribery or the lumbering Luca Toni and the unpredictable Antonio Cassano there is no match for Domenech's pairing.

These two sides also met in Euro qualifying, with France winning comfortably in Paris and holding Italy to a 0-0 draw in Milan so quite why France are almost 2/1 is baffling. Both side's fate depends on how kind Holland want to be to Romania in the other Group C match (the 6/5 about Romania suggests Marco Van Basten will be in benevolent mood - particularly as Holland must meet the Group C runners up in the semi-finals) but, barring a Zinedine Zidane-style moment of madness, France's superior quality should come to the fore in this one.