Experts View on Cheltenham

Attheraces experts give their views on Cheltenham Races Q. Let's start with your ante-post bets. What vouchers are you still clutching tightly and which have already crashed and burned?I'm not a huge ante-post punter as I just get too frustrated when my horse does not even run. But, I've got 66-1 Locksmith for the Arkle. As a horse he's nutty as a fruitcake - goes off a million miles an hour, sometimes holds on, sometimes fades, sometimes falls - but does have ability. I've also backed Best Mate at 7-2 for the Gold Cup, Hardy Eustace at 7-1 for the Champion Hurdle and Marcel for the Supreme at 9-1. At least at this stage they are all on course for the Festival. Kicking King was a horse I tipped up here on the website for the Gold Cup at the start of the season and I was truly devastated when we heard that he was likely to miss the Festival. Now we hear that there's a chance of him lining up after all and my hopes are at least still alive. I backed him at 33-1 and I backed him at 20-1 and then I backed him again (twice!) at 12-1 after his King George win. I was mad keen on this horse as the longer the season went on the more gilt edged all of his form looked. I genuinely believe that the overall quality of his form is superior to any other contender and the only question mark was the trip. Now there's also a big doubt about his fitness so I won't be wading in again - he's still my biggest ante-post position on the Festival. Elswhere I'm on Beef Or Salmon at 12s and Therealbandit at 40-1 and 20-1 (yes I took 20-1!). 12-1 Beef or Salmon is a good price if he's 100% right on the big day but I'd be surprised to draw on Therealbandit who has disappointed me. Having said that if Martin Pipe does run him that decision should be respected and a big run can be anticipated. Elsewhere I've only dabbled although I seem to have developed quite a strong position on Ned Kelly in the Arkle. He's a horse I always had a bit of a soft spot for and he really caught my eye in his first two runs over fences. He travelled and jumped well in both those events and looks to be coming to the boil at just the right time. I think he'll go off a single figure price so I'm very happy with my position on him.. Bet on cheltenham with LadbrokesVCBet (free fifty pound bet)Stan James (free twenty five pound bet)Blue Square (free twenty five pound bet)Q. Before we look at the feature races, do you have any golden rules regarding betting at the Festival?A huge bank is essential. Don't worry about backing short-priced horses even though all your mates will point to outsiders with chances. A 2-1 winner at Cheltenham is not the same as a 2-1 elsewhere. Financially it may me, but not psychologically. Knowing your judgement has been proved right at Cheltenham is, quite simply, the best feeling. Back Paul Nicholls-trained chasers in two-mile handicaps with Ruby Walsh on board. Look at Martin Pipe second and third strings, particularly if AP McCoy is on board. Stick with your own selections rather than listen to others. Consider betting on the Tote - pools are strong at this meeting and there is plenty of value.. Q. Moving on to the main event of the Tuesday, the Smurfit Champion Hurdle, do you think Harchibald has what it takes and are the Irish going to also fill the places?Harchibald certainly has the class to go well but it's hard to see him dominating here the way he has against small fields on softer ground. He's certainly not my idea of a value bet. A value bet is going to be pretty hard to find this year as there are at least half a dozen horses coming out of Ireland who have the right credentials. My personal choices are Macs Joy and Back In Front. The Irish Champion Hurdle was indeed a good trial for both Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca but let's not forget that it was Jessica Harrington's horse that won that day. Back In Front was made to look pretty ordinary by Harchibald at Punchestown but the overall level of Back In Front's form is outstanding and he is - crucially - a proven Cheltenham performer. It should be a cracking race but my two look sure to go close and if I had to pick one Back In Front would be it but I'll wait till nearer the day to gauge the confidence in each runner in the market before playing.The Irish challenge can often be over-hyped but not this year. I can't see the English taking this event. Rooster Booster looks half the horse he was when winning the race before and Inglis Drever for me is neither fluent enough nor resolute enough to come up trumps in this pressure cooker of a race where any weakness is invariably exposed. The Irish may well dominate here, but Harchibald will not be my fancy. Yes, he's improved out of all recognition this season, but memories of him flattening out in last year's County Hurdle (finished fifth, admittedly after a bad mistake four out) linger in the mind. I tipped up last year's Champion hero Hardy Eustace at 7-1 on the ATR website at the beginning of this season to record a repeat win at Cheltenham this term and nothing that has happened since then has changed my mind. He's at a huge advantage being a prominent runner in a field of hold-up performers. Of the other Irish contenders I'm most fearful of Brave Inca, who will be flying up the Cheltenham hill as he stays strong. He was definitely unlucky in the Irish Champion Hurdle and is the big threat. On the ATR website I also tipped up Inglis Drever at 25-1 and I'm dying for him to take his chance. AP McCoy gave him a superb ride to win at Wincanton last time and he'll be suited by going left-handed. A definite each-way squeak at a big price. I respect Back In Front who is clearly very able, while Essex could be a huge threat. Of the leading Irish hopes Macs Joy is the one I fear least?so he's sure to hack up! Q. Irish-trained horses have won the last three renewals of the Letheby & Christopher Supreme Novices' Hurdle, do you think the non-Irish challenge, led by Marcel, is strong enough to reverse the trend?YES. Marcel is a cracking horse and I went mad at the bookmakers in the betting booth on ATR after they pushed him out in betting for this race after his defeat in the West Country last time. He clearly hated the ground - he's won on good to firm - and they over-reacted. For me he is still the one to beat and good value for the race. I'm on!!! Leading Irish hope Justified is, like Marcel, quite exposed but it was hard not to be impressed with his win in a Grade 2 last time. He'll be hard to keep out the first five. Publican is improving for Ireland but the other British horse who I think is over-priced is Pole Star. A stayer on the Flat, Pole Star may well go for a race over a longer distance than this at the Festival, but I reckon he would love coming off a fast pace in this contest. He has a high cruising speed. Q. With the promising Fundamentalist, Cloone River and Kauto Star missing the Festival through injury, 2004 Supreme Novices' runner-up War Of Attrition heads the market for the Irish Independent Arkle Trophy Chase, but is he a worthy favourite?It's impossible to describe War Of Attrition as a false favourite as he's done little wrong, jumps well, and has been brought along steadily to reach a peak at the right time. In my book he's no super star - in other words I would be surprised if he was doing a Well Chief this time next year - but he's a decent performer. One area I would be concerned about with him is how much he'll find off the bridle. Watson Lake impressed in Ireland last time but had little defeat on the day with the favourite running badly, while I'm not sure Contraband has the right attitude for an Arkle winner. Like-A-Butterfly would interest me a lot if turning up on the day but she is very hard to keep right at home. I would not give up on Made In Japan at a big price - he's a Triumph winner who jumps well and will enjoy coming off a blistering pace. He flopped when last seen at Kempton, but will be fresh for the Festival. Q. Wednesday's Queen Mother Champion Chase has looked as though it will be a three-horse battle all season. Can you see anything beating the trio of Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop and Well Chief and, if not, who would you side with?Absolutely not. I've been a huge Azertyuiop fan since his win last season and I still favour him for this year's renewal. The big advantage that Paul Nicholls and his team now have is they know the full extent of their horse's stamina and they can dictate the terms at which this race is run. That could be the key to the outcome but if ever there was a race to savour for the sport rather than have the mortgage on, this is it. As for trying to look beyond the big three I really can't see the point. There are times when it pays to keep it simple and not try and be too clever.Q. The Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle has had a better record than the Supreme Novices in recent years when it comes to producing future champions (Istabraq and Hardy Eustace both feature on the roll of honour in the last ten year). Is there another great in the field this year?'Probably' is the easy answer! What it is I don't know yet. I've been stung on this race before by wrongly guessing the target of particular horses and it's worth waiting to see which race the likes of Justified will go for but again I'd be looking to Ireland for the winner. The good thing about this year is that we've had a chance to see most of the Irish raiders in action on ATR rather than just reading about them. As ever though, the trick is to keep a very close eye on the market as the days go by and look for a horse with the credentials, the right trainer and the right money coming before getting involved. Q. Ollie Magern dominates the market for the Royal & SunAlliance Chase this year. There's no doubt that he has more experience than any of his rivals, but does he have the class to take this 'novices Gold Cup'?I reckon Ollie Magern is a horse to take on in this event. His jumping is not perfect but, more importantly, it's the fact that he takes a strong hold that worries me. I'm not sure he'll get home unless he settles a lot better than he did at Wetherby last time. I don't like another leading market contender in this in Comply Or Die, but L'Ami is interesting, as is Cornish Rebel. Like Locksmith, the latter is a bit nutty but I'm sure he's got more talent than we have seen so far, while L'Ami slammed Control Man in a decent event at Warwick and his beating of Distant Thunder at Lingfield earlier this season also now looks good.Q. Baracouda was denied a third triumph in the Stayers' Hurdle last year by Iris's Gift, but with that rival missing the Festival, can Francois Doumen's ten-year-old produce the goods one last time in the race - which bears the new title of Ladbrokes World Hurdle - in 2005?DEFINITELY. Baracouda is simply the best horse in this event. He has the best jockey in Tony McCoy and also a master French trainer in Francois Doumen. It is actually possible that Baracouda could reach a peak at 10, so the age factor does not bother me. As I have said, he's simply the best horse. Rule Supreme would only come into my thinking if the ground was heavy, and even then I reckon Baracouda would win. There is nothing else in the race that I think can win! Q. A new race at the meeting in 2005 is the Daily Telegraph Trophy - a two and a half mile level weights chase - but many of the leading hopes are also entered in other races, is there anything that you fancy at this stage or would you prefer to wait until the day itself?If I knew right now that Rathgar Beau would run I'd take the 5-1 plus as an each-way bet to nothing. This horse's form is spectacularly solid being franked as it is not just by Kicking King but by Moscow Flyer too. As soon as it's clear that this is his target Rathgar Beau can be backed. I would go each way as my one concern about the horse is what he will find off the bridle in a battle up the Cheltenham hill but he travels and jumps so well that he looks sure to be in the shake up and as I say his form is very nearly flawless. Bet on cheltenham with LadbrokesVCBet (free fifty pound bet)Stan James (free twenty five pound bet)Blue Square (free twenty five pound bet)Q. The opener on the final day, the JCB Triumph Hurdle, is traditionally one of the hardest races for punters at the meeting. Will you be brave enough to get involved in this one?In a word, no. Unless you really know something that genuinely means that the bookies have priced your selection wrongly it's very tough to find a proper bet in this race. I don't pretend to have that kind of knowledge so unless I come across something between now and the day there's very little chance of me getting involved. Races like this are hugely tempting with big prices on offer about talented horses but the appearance of value is usually illusory unless you have a real edge in terms of knowledge of a horse's ability. Q. By the time Best Mate lines up for the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup on the Friday, the whole course will be alive with the anticipation of his attempt at a fourth consecutive triumph. Hand on heart, is he going to do it?Yes, Yes Yes. Look, Best Mate is no Arkle, but the conditions of the Gold Cup suit him ideally and most of those he will be facing he's beaten in the race before. Poor old Boycey has already done his dough on Kicking King and I despite backing him at the start of the season even he can't whip up much enthusiasm for Beef Or Salmon, who is 'in and out' in my view and simply doesn't jump well enough.Q. Cheltenham wouldn't be Cheltenham without the big handicaps, is there anything that stands out for you?I tend to leave these races to the day and find that I rarely lose out massively in terms of value by doing so. Running plans are still so fluid at the moment that there is rarely much to be gained by getting stuck in early. I've already mentioned Mark Bradstock's King Harald who is a horse I rate highly and believe to be well handicapped. If he swerves the Royal & SunAlliance Chase he would interest me in either the novices' handicap or the William Hill Handicap Chase. Otherwise I agree strongly with a point that Matt made. Look very closely at all Martin Pipe's entries in these races. I also expect that Jonjo will produce the goods at the Festival despite his setbacks and he's sure to have one or two plotted up for his landlord JP McManus so his runners should be respected despite the long enforced lay off at Jackdaws.Q. Irish bookmakers Boyle Sports make six winners the most likely outcome for the Irish in 2005 - do you think they are right?An extra day, of course, this year and the Irish do seem to hold strong claims in a lot of races. Of course guess work is involved here but calculated guess work suggests they might do even better than six. Possibly seven or eight. Q. Last of all, if you could have just one bet over the whole four days, what would it be?Baracouda.Bet on cheltenham with LadbrokesVCBet (free fifty pound bet)Stan James (free twenty five pound bet)Blue Square (free twenty five pound bet) Source: attheraces.