FERNANDO VERDASCO ON VERGE OF SECOND CONSECUTIVE MASTERS FINAL

Fernando Verdasco is on the verge of a second consecutive Masters Series Final and standing in his way is compatriot, Davis Cup teammate, and friend, David Ferrer. Verdasco and Ferrer are set to collide in the Rome Masters semi-finals today, in what will be the highest stakes clash ever between these two. Naturally, markets are burgeoning with odds on their clash, none more so than William Hill that takes tennis bettors front-and-centre with over 20 markets ahead of the match and Live Betting markets during the match.
Verdasco is listed at Evens (strangely so) while Ferrer enters this match as the bookmakers slim favourite at 8/11 odds. The market is conspicuously at odds with several aspects of their pairing.
Firstly, Verdasco has the ranking edge over Ferrer. Nando is ranked inside the top ten (No.9) while Ferrer is ranked at No.17.
Secondly, Verdasco has a solid 6-3 edge over Ferrer lifetime, which is entirely made up of clay court wins. Verdasco has beaten Ferrer in six of their last eight clay court matches, and as recently as last week at the Barcelona Open semis –a tournament Verdasco won, mind.
Thirdly, since the European clay court swing kicked off two weeks ago, Verdasco has totted up a tally of 12-1; his only loss came to Rafael Nadal at the Monte Carlo Masters final.
All these advantages, and yet Verdasco isn’t the clear favourite. Rather Ferrer is. Now there is nothing wrong with Ferrer, per se. He is on form this season, especially on clay.
Ferrer picked up a title Acapulco and finished runner-up in Buenos Aires. Most recently, he reached back-to-back semis in Monte Carlo and Barcelona. Overall, he is 16-3 on clay so far this term.
Perhaps, therein lays his favourite status in the market. Yet, I am not buying what he is selling. Ferrer, as good as he is, has never come through in high stakes matches. Throughout his career he has had measured successes at minor events but never at major events. He has never reached the final of a Masters event – save for the Tennis Masters Cup in 2007 which is entirely different in format and as such, separate.
Because he has never made it into the final of a Masters doesn’t mean he won’t finally breakthrough today. He just might. Problem is the lack of self-belief and conviction he showed in the past is a huge mark against him and remains so today, until he proves otherwise.
Then there is Verdasco who is gathering pace and gaining confidence. He is after beating Djokovic for a second time in a row at a Masters – a result that just adds more shine to his odds.
To sum up this match: Verdasco is the player to beat in my opinion. This is his match to win or lose.